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Showing posts with label Out-Drafting Bonanza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Out-Drafting Bonanza. Show all posts

Friday, December 5, 2008

Out-Drafting Bonanza Part 4 - The New England Patriots and Bill Belichick

Welcome to part 4 of the Out-Drafting Bonanza. Today's team is the Bill Belichick lead New England Patriots. For all cheating and video taping allegations, they certainly have given off the aura of being the Gold Standard for drafting. The team is considered a model franchise and the New England fans seem to turn a blind eye to how the team is run, as long as it produces winning results (so far so good). So, let's wind another one our and remember, the goal of this exercise is to compare a few different "successful" (and one really unsuccessful) NFL regimes and discover who's good, who's bad and where the hell we'll put Andy Reid.

In case you don't remember, here's a look at our Scoring System again.

And here's the regimes we'll be looking at:
Let's not tie up any more of your time. Let's get to the Belichickian Era Drafts:

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2002 1 Daniel Graham 3 0 Graham was an adequate starter for the Pats. Not as special as they believed he would be

2 Deion Branch 3 0 Again, Branch was a capable starter and SB MVP. He got it done when needed, but wasn't special

3 Traded to move up and pick Graham 1 0 A third round pick for Graham? Ouch

4 Rohan Davey/ Jarvis Green 2 0 Davey was a total flop and Green is a decent rotation DL

5 Traded to move up and pick Green 1 0 Can't say trading up to get a reserve DL was worth it in hindsight

6 Traded for future pick 0 0 ?? - The Pats traded a lot and it was almost impossible to track all of them

7 Antoine Womack/ David Givens 2 1 Womack (0) never made the team but Givens (3) was a fine starter while with the Pats

This draft really was mixed. Belichick found three adequate to good starters, but nothing special. Graham, Givens and Branch are/were good players in New England who did help produce a few Super Bowls, so its hard to argue with the results, but no studs really were taken.

2002 Score: 13 Points. First Round Hit Total: 1/1. Quality Players Selected (total): 0/6

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2003 1 Ty Warren 4 0 Warren is a fine leader on defense and a stud DT

2 Eugene Wilson/ Bethel Johnson 2 0 Wilson was a decent safety who worked the Pats system while Johnson had speed, but only showed flashes and his lack of work ethic ended his career

3 Traded to move up and pick Wilson 1 0 Can't say trading up for Wilson was awful, but wasn't worth it

4 Dan Klecko/ Asante Samuel 4 4 Klecko (3+1) was a fine DT and great reserve while Samuel was an all-pro (5+3)

5 Dan Koppen 4 2 Koppen is a pro-bowl center on a Super Bowl team

6 Kliff Kingsbury 0 0 Another miserable backup QB, never made the team's 53

7 Spencer Nead/ Tully Banta-Cain/ Ethan Kelley 1 0 Nead never made the squad, Banta-Cain was a decent reserve/role player and Kelley played one game as a Pat

Talk about a marquee draft. Belichick scored higher in the 4th round than the Lions did in the entire 2004 draft. Five of his first 6 picks were hits of at least starters and he even found a decent backup (Banta-Cain) in the 7th...which you'll note is a trend with BB, he does find relative Diamonds in the rough. Its not always Brady, but he finds contributors.

2003 Score: 22 Points. First Round Hit Total: 2/2. Quality Players Selected (total): 2/16

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2004 1 Vince Wilfork/ Ben Watson 4 0 Wilfork (5) is a stud DT while Watson (3) is a solid starter

2 Marquise Hill 1 -1 Hard to fault the Pats here, but Hill was a backup until his death in 2007

3 Guss Scott 1 0 Scott was a special teamer for 1 season with the Pats

4 Dexter Reid/ Cedric Cobbs 1 0 Both were reserves/special teamers

5 P.K. Sam 0 0 Between legal issues and stupidity, Sam never suited up but did collect a Super Bowl Ring

6 Traded for Jamil Soriano 0 0 Never played as a Pat but if you google his name, you'll see him on facebook

7 Christian Morton 0 0 Practice squadee who never suited up

This was clearly his worst draft. Marquise Hill and Guss Scott aren't even recognizable names, but the on thing Belichick didn't screw up was the first round, where he found a stud Defensive lineman in Vince Wilfork and a nice starter in Ben Watson.

2004 Score: 6 Points. First Round Hit Total: 4/4. Quality Players Selected (total): 4/24

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2005 1 Logan Mankins 4 0 Mankins is a probowler and 2nd team all-pro, nice late round pick

2 Traded for picks to get Hobbs, Thomas (06) and Mincey (06) picks 2 0 Hobbs as a 2nd still isn't a bad pick but the package still didn't work out by 06

3 Ellis Hobbs/ Nick Kaczur 3 0 Hobbs (3) is a nice starter while Kaczur, regardless of legal trouble has been an effective starter at tackle

4 James Sanders 3 1 Sanders has adequately replaced Wilson

5 Ryan Claridge 1 0 Claridge spent 1 year as a special teamer and was released

6 Traded for Stevenson pick (06) 0 0 Ouch

7 Matt Cassel/ Andy Stokes 2 1 Stokes (0) never made the 53 man team but was Mr Irrelevant, and Cassel (3) has filled in very well for Tom Brady.

Again, Belichick didn't miss on his first four picks, finding a pro-bowl lineman and three starter to decent backup players. Then in the 7th round he found current starting Quarterback Matt Cassel. I have a feeling I might get some flack for calling Cassel a three, but while he's played well, he's a backup QB on that team. A good one, but a backup.

2005 Score: 17 Points. First Round Hit Total: 5/5. Quality Players Selected (total): 5/31

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2006 1 Laurence Maroney 3 0 He's a starter, but injuryprone

2 Chad Jackson 1 -1 13 career catches and injury prone

3 David Thomas 2 0 Thomas is a decent blocker and adequate backup

4 Garrett Mills/ Stephen Gostkowski 2 1 Mills never played a down as a Pat, while Gostkowski is a adequate kicker

5 Ryan O'Callaghan 2 0 O'Callaghan is currently a career backup but could become a decent starter

6 Jeremy Mincey/ Dan Stevenson/ Le Kevin Smith 0 0 Mincey & Stevenson never made the 53 man team, while Smith has seen little time

7 Willie Andrews 1 0 Decent special teamer

Again, Belichick hit on the first round. While he didn't find much gold (the jury's still out on Maroney), he did find adequate players to form the high powered team for 2007. There was the Jackson bust but he was only one of two negative scorers for Belichick. The proof is in the pudding here but off the top of my head I see five players here who have contributed to successful Patriot squads (Andrews, Gostkowski, Thomas, Maroney and O'Callaghan).

2006 Score: 11 Points. First Round Hit Total: 6/6. Quality Players Selected (total): 5/41

So its reasonable to believe the Belichick drafts were a bit overrated. On the negative side, Belichick found a lot of 2s and 3s and wasn't afraid to make some 0s and cut losses (almost all the 1s were cut quickly too and none proved to be any good regardless). His positive was his ability (again) to find a lot of 2s and 3s which played crucial roles on teams that won Super Bowls. Moreover, he never missed on a first round pick (the weakest being Maroney, Watkins or Graham, though each still started a few games).

Final Scores:
  • The Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid/Tom Heckert: 76. First round % (3 or better): 80%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 15%
  • The Detroit Lions and Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli: 47. First round % (3 or better): 40%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 5%
  • The Seattle Seahawks and Mike Holmgren/Tim Ruskell: 69. First round % (3 or better): 60%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 10%
  • The New England Patriots and Bill Belichick: 69. First round % (3 or better): 100%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 12%
Note: 14.28% represents 1 pick out of 7 (per draft) is a quality player

Questions, concerns, comments, errors, Omissions? Please leave in the comments for send to Justin@badnewsbloggers.com

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Out-Drafting Bonanza Part 3 - Seattle Seahawks & Mike Holmgren/Tim Ruskell

Welcome to part 3 of the Out-Drafting Bonanza. This is the (mostly) Holmgren Coach/GM draft (Tim Ruskell is responsible for the 2006 product). Seattle is so incredibly similar to Philly in front office and playing style that its an ideal comparison to get a margin of error. Andy Reid is a Holmgren-ite and fan of the WCO, though his defensive scheme isn't terribly similar (as it's mostly Jim Johnson's). So sit back, relax and enjoy the recaps. Remember, the goal of this exercise is to compare a few different "successful" NFL regimes and discover who's good, who's bad and where the hell we'll put Andy Reid.

In case you don't remember, here's a look at our Scoring System again.

And here's the regimes we'll be looking at:
Let's not tie up any more of your time. Let's get to the Holmgren (and one Ruskell) Era Drafts:

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2002 1 Jerramy Stevens 3 0 Stevens, most famous for being a Super Bowl flop, he was an adequate player and nothing more

2 Maurice Morris/ Anton Palepoi 2 -1 Mo Morris is the essence of career solid backup but Palepoi was a total flop, starting once and rarely playing beyond that

3 Kris Richard 2 0 Adequate special teamer

4 Terreal Bierria 2 0 His family a victim of Hurricane Katrina, he left the Seahawks to care for his family and never returned to football after being the starting SS in 04

5 Rocky Bernard/ Ryan Hannam/ Matt Hill 2 2 Rocky Bernard (4) is an excellent DT and crucial to the Seahawks SB run, Hannam (2) was a career special teamer/backup and Matt Hill (1) rarely played. Bonus points for Bernard as he's a stud DT

6 Craig Jarrett 0 0 Never played a down as a Seahawk

7 Jeff Kelly 1 0 Career 3rd string QB, first pass was a Pick-6

Honestly, this draft was a respectable draft. It's highlighted by Rocky Bernard, a solid DT (though the 5th round score is hampered by two shitty players also selected). Jerramy Stevens was a TE with all the assets needed to play the game except a brain and Maurice Morris is the essence of a backup RB (that's a good thing). So its a pretty average draft based on the results so far.

2002 Score: 13 Points. First Round Hit Total: 1/1. Quality Players Selected (total): 1/10

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2003 1 Marcus Trufant 4 0 Trufant is a solid starter and pro-bowler regardless of this season

2 Ken Hamlin 4 0 We'll give Hamlin a 4 here because he was very good in Seattle, but he's been better in Dallas

3 Wayne Hunter 0 0 Hunter had legal trouble leading to his release and never played a down as a Seahawk

4 Seneca Wallace/ Solomon Bates 2 1 Wallace (3) has been an adequate backup QB/interesting WR, but Bates (1) never stuck, starting just once and out of football in 2 years

5 Chris Davis 1 0 Played a few downs

6 Rashad Moore 2 0 A career backup, he's bounced around the NFL

7 Josh Brown/ Taco Wallace 2 1 A guy named Taco? He played sparingly (1) while Brown (3) has been a solid NFL kicker

Let's get this out of the way right now. How can you fault Mike Holmgren for drafting a guy named "Taco." I know I can't. Beyond that, he drafted two DBs who are excellent and pro-bowlers (and vital to their Super Bowl Run) as well as a decent backup QB. Toss in a above average kicker and you just had a good draft.

2003 Score: 17 Points. First Round Hit Total: 2/2. Quality Players Selected (total): 3/19

2004 1 Marcus Tubbs 2 0 Tubbs is/was a talented player but has been hampered by injuries. He started a few games but never really became a force

2 Michael Boulware 3 0 A career backup Boulware lasted three years with the Seahawks, starting occasionally

3 Sean Locklear 3 0 Locklear is a quality starter at both Guard and Tackle

4 Niko Koutouvides 2 0 Career backup/Special Teamer

5 D.J. Hackett 3 0 Hackett was an adequate fringe starter

6 Craig Terrill 2 0 Career backup/Special Teamer

7 Donnie Jones 1 0 Punted a few times, waived after a season

2004 was the kind of draft that stocks your team relatively well, but doesn't do all that much. A lot of average starters/career backups were drafted (Locklear, Hackett) but Marcus Tubbs really kills the draft. You can't fault Holmgren for taking him and he is a talented player but he could/can not make it on the field. The score is certainly deceiving here.

2004 Score: 16 Points. First Round Hit Total: 2/3. Quality Players Selected (total): 3/26

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2005 1 Chris Spencer 3 0 Injury prone but a quality starter at both center and guard

2 Lofa Tatupu 5 0 All-Pro LB

3 David Greene/ Leroy Hill 2 -1 Never played a down as a Seahawk while Hill is a decent starter at LB

4 Ray Willis 1 0 Special Teamer/Backup

5 Jeb Huckeba 0 0 I could not find a down he played as a Seahawk

6 Tony Jackson 0 0 I could not find a down he played as a Seahawk

7 Cornelius Wortham/ Doug Nienhuis 1 0 Wortham was a special teamer before being cut in 2006 and Nienhuis never made the 43 man roster

Bow down and respect Tatupu who saved an otherwise shitty draft. Chris Spencer is a respectable 3 position lineman/starter but otherwise this draft was crap. Again, bonus points for Tatupu (not really) who saved Holmgren from our lowest score to date (6 - tied with the Lions in 2005)

2005 Score: 11 Points. First Round Hit Total: 3/4. Quality Players Selected (total): 4/35

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2006 1 Kelly Jennings 2 -1 Nickleback/special teamer, not good enough to start

2 Darryl Tapp 3 0 Tapp is a decent starter and that's about it

3 Compensation for Nate Burleson signing 1
0 Really, a 3rd plus a boat load of cash for Burleson? Ouch

4 Rob Sims 3 0 Respectable career backup, could become a solid starter

5 David Kirtman 1 0 Never stuck with the Seahawks

6 Traded for Mike Green 1
0 Career backup as a Seahawk, released before the start of this season

7 Ryan Packemeirer/ Ben Obomanu 2 0 Plackemeirer was an adequate punter and Obomanu still is a question mark with some talent

Ruskell clearly can't do much better with his first draft. About par for the course over the last three years as 2005 wasn't special and 2004 was a bit deceiving. Sims and Tapp were the decent players selected here and they're only decent starters to career backup level.

2006 Score: 12 Points. First Round Hit Total: 3/5. Quality Players Selected (total): 4/41

And there you have it. The Holmgren and 2006 Ruskell led Seahawks scored 69 points. If 76 produces a similar team with one Super Bowl run (and probably a little more success in the playoffs) you can see the subtle difference. I have a feeling the Patriots might score closer to high 80s or 90s. And they're next. So let's see what type of drafting they do to complement the video camera. Stay Tuned for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.

Scores:
  • The Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid/Tom Heckert: 77. First round % (3 or better): 80%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 15%
  • The Detroit Lions and Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli: 47. First round % (3 or better): 40%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 5%
  • The Seattle Seahawks and Mike Holmgren/Tim Ruskell: 69. First round % (3 or better): 60%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 10%
Note: 14.28% represents 1 pick out of 7 (per draft) is a quality player

Questions, concerns, comments, errors, Omissions? Please leave in the comments for send to Justin@badnewsbloggers.com

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Out-Drafting Bonanza Part 2 - Detroit Lions & Matt Millen


Welcome to part 2 of the Out-Drafting Bonanza. This one should be fun. Matt Millen and the Detroit Lions represent the standard which all shitty drafts (and drafting) should be measured by. The goal is to compare a few different "successful" (and in this case incredibly unsuccessful) NFL regimes and discover who's good, who's bad and where the hell we'll put Andy Reid.

In case you don't remember, here's a look at our Scoring System again.

And here's the regimes we'll be looking at:
  • Philadelphia Eagles (Andy Reid)
  • Detroit Lions (Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli...all under Matt Millen and we'll use this is the baseline/epitome of crap)
  • Seattle Seahawks (Mike Holmgren)
  • New England Patriots (Bill Belichick)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars (Jack Del Rio)
  • Dallas Cowboys (Jerry Jones err Wade Phillips, though we'll be counting the Parcells years because of how involved Jones was regardless)
  • Denver Broncos (Mike Shanahan)
  • Chicago Bears (Lovie Smith)
  • San Diego Charges (Norv Turner...but all the A.J. Smith era)
Let's not tie up any more of your time. Let's get to the Millen Era Drafts:

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2002 1 Joey Harrington 2
-2 What can I say about Harrington that hasn't already been said. He was a bust of a top 3 pick and is essentially a career backup, though he's started quite a few games

2 Kalimba Edwards 3 0 Edwards was a capable starter for five years and lead the lions in sacks twice. He was eventually released by the Lions, but wasn't a real bust

3 Andre Goodman 3 0 Another decent player. Not quite a starter, not quite a backup. Goodman was respectable as a Lion though

4 John Taylor 0 0 Taylor suited up but never played a down

5 John Owens 2 0 A spot starter with multiple stints on the Lions

6 Chris Cash 2 0 We'll give cash a 3 because he was actually a good starter until an injury.

7 Luke Staley/ Matt Murphy/ Victor Rogers 0 0 None of these players appear to play a down for the Lions (actually Murphy had one reception...not good enough)

Clearly, this draft his headlined by the bust that is Joey Harrington. I had trouble calling him a 2 because he is/was/will be a career backup, but as a top 3 pick that couldn't start, I had to call him a "backup or role player, multiple years with team." Beyond that, this draft was highlighted by Kalimba Edwards, an above average starter and Andre Goodman, a decent spot starter.

2002 Score: 10 Points. First Round Hit Total: 0/1. Quality Players Selected (total): 0/9

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2003 1 Charles Rogers 2 -2 Rogers never made it on the field. He seemed to have the talent but between injuries and the Lions ineptitude, he never made it

2 Boss Bailey 3 0 Bailey is a solid starter, but not Champ

3 Cory Redding 4 0 Redding is a top DT (if a little fat?) but an excellent 3rd rounder

4 Artose Pinner 2 0 Pinner never stuck with the Lions but was a solid backup

5 Terrence Holt/ James Davis 2 0 Again, Holt is/was a respectable backup on the Lions while Davis was a career backup with a short career

6 David Kircus 1 0 Kircus played a little as a rookie, but never recorded more than 9 receptions in 3 years

7 Ben Johnson/Blue Adams/ Brandon Drumm/ Travis Anglin 0 0 None played significant time (or apparently any snaps) with the Lions

You'll note the first round picks were a bit of a trend. This time its Charles Rogers, who did seem to play pretty well at times, but could never stay on the field and has his own issues. Beyond that, they did find a decent number of starts and solid career backups, as well as Cory Redding, who's pretty good.

2003 Score: 12 Points. First Round Hit Total: 0/2. Quality Players Selected (total): 1/19

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2004 1 Roy Williams/ Kevin Jones 3 0 Roy Williams is a star WR and Kevin Jones actually rushed for 1,000 yards once, though he was never more than a decent starter at best

2 Teddy Lehman 2 0 Lehman started all of 2004 and hasn't started since

3 Keith Smith 2 0 A career backup

4 Traded for Kevin Jones 1 0 Jones was definitely a bust for both a late 1st and 4th

5 Alex Lewis 2 0 Another career backup

6 Kelly Butler 0 0 Didn't appear to play a down

7 MIA 0 0 I couldn't find anything about this pick.

Obviously Roy Williams is the bright spot here. Now Williams isn't a pro-bowler but he is a star, a solid star and was trade bait...hopefully using the Cowboys picks will net something under the Mayhew regime. Otherwise, Jones and Lehman were practically busts that played and, frankly, sucked.

2004 Score: 10 Points. First Round Hit Total: 1/3. Quality Players Selected (total): 2/25

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2005 1 Mike Williams 1 -2 Williams was an epic bust and the 3rd of a group of dumb WR drafts

2 Shaun Cody 2 0 A career backup so far, but still with the Lions

3 Stanley Wilson 1 0 A veritable who's who if shitty backups

4 Traded for Teddy Lehman 1 0 Ouch...

5 Dan Orlovsky 2 0 A career backup QB...who's kind of an idiot

6 Bill Swancutt/ Jonathan Goddard 1 0 Swancutt played one year (and started 2 games) while Goddard never saw the field as a Lion (and actually got a tackle with the World Champion Colts)


7 Another MIA 0 0 Maybe they just don't pick?

Now this draft was an epic fail. Mike Williams never translated to the NFL, Shaun Cody was the highlight of the draft and is really a fringe starter at best (though the position was loaded in front of him) and none of the other players were ever close to good.

2005 Score: 6 Points. First Round Hit Total: 1/4. Quality Players Selected (total): 2/31

Year Round Name Score (1-5) Bonus Note
2006 1 Ernie Sims 3 0 A pretty good starter. Sims technically should get a -1, what its hard to call him a bust of any kind

2 Daniel Bullocks 3 0 Another career fringe starter

3 Brian Calhoun 1 0 Special teamer and role player/backup

4 Traded for Shaun Cody 1 0 Not as bad as the Lehman trade, but it didn't help

5 Jonathan Scott 0 0 Didn't appear to play a down

6 Alton McCann 0 0 Didn't appear to play a down

7 Fred Matua/ Anthony Cannon 1 0 Matua didn't appear to play a down, and Cannon only played a few.

Now, a draft's real measure is in the 2s 3s and 4s in my opinion. In 2003, the Lions were actually pretty good at seizing that portion. And that was the only time. 2006 yielded Ernie Sims, who's definitely a solid starter and really could be a pro-bowler. Beyond that, they acquired a fringe starter in Daniel Bullocks and not much else. They even traded 2006's pick and move up a little and acquire Shaun Cody, another career backup. Now I'm counting Sims as a hit on the first round pick, but not by much.

2006 Score: 9 Points. First Round Hit Total: 2/5. Quality Players Selected (total): 2/38

And there you go. As you can see, the Lions were epically bad at drafting, which explains their miserable on the field product. A final score of 47 really shows you the low point of draft quality. Next up is Seattle, a team with a similar crappy division success period (like the Eagles), a Super Bowl run (like the Eagles) and an egotistical, walrus-like, fat head coach (like the Eagles).

Scores:
  • The Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid/Tom Heckert: 76
  • The Detroit Lions and Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli: 47
Questions, concerns, comments, errors, Omissions? Please leave in the comments for send to Justin@badnewsbloggers.com
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