NFC South Game of the Year (and a recap of Sunday's games)

I cannot emphasize enough how important tonight's Monday night mtachup is when it comes to the playoff race. Even the casual NFL fan will tell you tonight's game will be a great one. If you are not intrigued by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) and Carolina Panthers (9-3) showdown, then you should not be calling yourself a fan of the NFL.

Carolina may have gotten knocked out by Tampa, 27-3, back in their week six matchup, but they have gone 5-1 since then and DeAngelo Williams is having a career year. The great duo of Williams and rookie RB Jonathan Stewart, out of Oregon, has helped Carolina the whole way, but my vote for comeback player of the year (Jake Delhomme) has backed them up well.

On the other side of the field, veteran QB Jeff Garcia has done a fine job keeping the 12th ranked offense together in close games. In fact, four of the Bucs nine wins have been by a touchdown or less, which includes two overtime wins over Chicago (27-24) and Kansas City (30-27). Might I add that all three of their losses have been by four or less points; 20-24 @ NO, 13-16 @ DEN, 9-13 @ Dallas. As you can see, all three of their losses have come on the road (6-0 at home). But, the game tonight happens to be in Carolina, meaning they are on the road (3-3 on road). That last piece of information obviously points towards Carolina, and adds a little pressure to Jon Gruden's Bucs.

The key in this game will be Carolina's seventh ranked rushing attack game against Tampa's fifth ranked run defense. Both teams will be favoring the run (Carolina is 19th run offense while Tampa's rushing attack is 11th). So expect only around 20 pass attempts for both starting QB's, Delhomme and Garcia.

My pick? Tampa is the obvious favorite; won last meeting and has the third ranked defense in the NFL. But I believe John Fox's Carolina Panthers, led by fantasy stud DeAngelo Williams will upset the Bucs and go on to win two of the last three regular season games to clinch the NFC South. Why not? I picked the Panthers to win the division before the seasons started, why give up on them now?

One thing I know for sure, at this point, is that we are witnessing something great. The NFC South has been having one of their best seasons in a pretty long time. Housing the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award (Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons QB) and home of TWO nine-win teams through 13 weeks. Just last season Tampa Bay won the division easily with nine wins and Atlanta (currently standing at 8-5) was battling for the top pick in the '08 draft (4-12). Their four-win season forced head coach Rick Pettrino to just resign overnight...before the season was even finished.

Prediction: Carolina def. Tampa Bay 35-28. Williams rushes for 130+ yards and 3 TD's.

A Case For DeAngelo Williams

Since the middle of last year, I’ve been telling anyone who will listen about how 2008 will be DeAngelo Williams’ breakout year. I sincerely believed it and still do. He has some things to work on, some fundamentals to clear up and a talented young rookie ready to take the starting job -- but if Williams can clear up the problems he has with blocking and picking up the blitz, he has the talent to not only keep the majority of carries, but keep the for a long time.

Word out of Panthers camp is that they’ve more or less given up on him as the starter due to his pass protection issues and if they don’t clear up soon he’ll remain a third down back for the rest of his time there. Never one to go back on a prediction unless there’s blatant evidence to the contrary staring me in the face, I decided to try and go into some of the reasons the Panthers shouldn’t give up on Williams just yet.

Williams has the skills to be a starter, but needs to work on his blocking.

Williams has seen some injuries both in college and the pros and many believe that at 5’9” and 217 pounds he doesn’t have what it takes to withstand the vigor’s that come with being a starting running back. Coming to this conclusion years from now would be okay, but Williams is going into his third NFL season. Players can train harder and get their body better acclimated to the NFL game even it takes them a few years to do so.

The perfect example? Brian Westbrook. Westbrook had a similar rep for getting injured from time to time and at 5’10” and 203 pounds he is almost anatomically identical to Williams. Early on in his career he too wasn’t considered a starting running back but over time he has proven to be fully capable and a dual threat weapon that gives defenses and fantasy owners alike fits.

Westbrook and Williams’ receiving stats from their first two years are nearly identical (418 and 488 yards respectably), with Williams rushing for around 400 more yards than Westbrook (1,218 compared to 806 yards).

Could Williams be a late bloomer like Brian Westbrook?

It’s hard to believe that Williams isn’t working as hard as he can on his blocking deficiencies if that’s the major reason the organization is weary of him becoming the starter. He’s only been in the league two years, playing the third down back/speedster with good hands role the entire time. Either he hasn’t had enough solid in game experience to become proficient at it or maybe he was trying to do too much and hit a home run.

The Panthers have gone 15-17 the past two years and for most of 2007 didn’t have a competent quarterback under center. With the QB not really a threat, defenses had no problems using different blitzing packages to counter-attack the run and rush the passer. Is it that much of a stretch to think that maybe the different combinations of blitzes the Panthers offense faced last year had a tad to do with Williams’ inability to pick them up?

Although Williams may have been partially to blame, shouldn’t the offensive line be taking some heat, considering Panthers QB’s were sacked once every 15.3 plays last season? Assuming Delhomme returns to a healthy form, some solid studying of blitz packages and a better understanding of who to block when under assignment in the backfield, Williams should be just fine.

Williams has more rushing yards than all but four of the running backs taken in the 2006 NFL Draft and he’s had 50-200 less carries than the top five. He also has the fourth highest receiving yards out of all of the 2006 rookie running backs and considering that everyone who has ahead of him in rushing and reception yards are starters, it’s safe to assume that Williams could be an feature back if he was just given more snaps.

With nearly every team drifting towards a running back by committee, the Panthers already have one set up for the future. If Williams can fix his affinity for blocking, picking up the blitz and getting the occasional injury, the Panthers organization would be crazy not to give him a chance to be the starter out of the committee.

UPDATE: "Darin Gantt, of The Herald, reporting for The Sporting News, reports Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams is expected to be used more this year. Williams has improved his pass protection this offseason, an area of his game that was once considered a liability." (From The Fantasy Players Network)