The Official NFL Conference Championship Preview (2008-09)

This is it. Four teams will play til the death this Sunday. Four teams will give it all they've got and leave it all out on the field. The winner? Well, all the winner will get to do is travel to Tampa Bay and play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy in two weeks, a chance at NFL history. Both the NFC teams, Philadelphia and Arizona are looking for their first-ever Super Bowl championship. Baltimore is looking for their second title since returning to Baltimore in 1996 while the Pittsburgh Steelers are seeking their record-breaking 6th Super Bowl win.

Three of the four QB's in this weekend's games have played in a Super Bowl, two of those three have a ring in their possession (Kurt Warner with STL in '99, Ben Roethlisberger with PIT in '05).

The Phildadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals will kickoff at 3 PM ET in Glendale, Arizona. The Eagles must stop the duo of Warner and Pro Bowl wideout Larry Fitzgerald after the two went for 166 yards and a TD against the Carolina Panthers last week. Eagles safety, Brian Dawkins, is nearing the end of his career and has yet to win a ring. Dawkins, the heart and soul of Philly's D for years, is Donovan McNabb's and the rest of the Eagles' motivation. Arizona's motivation in this game? How about losing season after losing season. They have rarely even managed to make the playoffs and they finally realized they are just one game away from the Super Bowl in Tampa. What more can you ask for??

As for the Ravens/Steelers game in Pittsburgh (scheduled to kickoff at 6:30 PM ET), many believe the third time's the charm for Baltimore's stingy defense. Pittsburgh has come out on top in both of the two team's previous meetings this season, and that was a Steelers team suffering injury after injury. But, after watching the Steelers 35-24 route of the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, the Steelers look to be as healthy as ever. This game will be better than the Super Bowl itself. The cold, snowy weather will make due for a very physical, run-based game. Both defenses are on the top of their game and are looking to knock off their division-rival. The winner of this game has a very good chance in the Super Bowl. I present you the third of four Playoff Previews (4-4 in eight playoff games, ew that's not good):

• What I, myself think.

• What Madden 09 (for XBOX 360) says.

and, of course...

• What 'Whatifsports.com' says (FYI: WIS just recently released the 2008 rosters).

NFC Conference Championship

Philadelphia Eagles @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, January 18th, 2009 at 3 PM ET

ME: PHI 24, ARI 17

Donovan McNabb has played tremendously this playoff season and even when Philadelphia's run game has struggled, Philly has been able to win games anyway because of solid defensive play. Asante Samuel and Brian Dawkins have had great games in the defensive secondary and if they can double-team Larry Fitzgerald it will be a much easier win for Philadelphia than expected. Give Brian Westbrook the ball early and often to take pressure off McNabb and continue giving him the ball if/when Philly gets a comfortable lead. Yes, Arizona winning this game will be a great head-liner, but I'm doubting them once again. Prove me wrong, Arizona!

Madden '09: PHI 16, ARI 23

Kurt Warner led his team to victory with a little help from the best WR in the league, Larry Fitzgerald of course. Warner went 23 of 32 for 238 yards and 2 TD's against Brian Dawkins and Asante Samuel. Guess they should've double-teamed him, huh? Fitzgerald caught both TD's for 24 and 32 yards in the second and third quarters. The rest of the scoring came off the once Pro Bowl kicker Neil Rackers who booted three FG's from beyond 43 yards. Donovan McNabb passed for just 195 yards and a TD, Brian Westbrook caught a TD and ran for another. A safety on Kurt Warner in the third capped Philly's scoring as Arizona rolled on to their first-ever Super Bowl appearance. Can you believe it!?!?

WIS: PHI 27, ARI 13

Well, it appears as though WIS knew exactly what Philly had to do to stop Warner and Fitz...double-team them, of course! I've mentioned that in this article several times now and yes, it works occasionally. Arizona couldn't stop Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. McNabb threw for 321 yards while Westbrook ran for 128 and a TD. Brian Dawkins made 8 tackles and record 1.5 sacks with a forced fumble on Warner. Now, that's how you win ballgames!

Overall: PHI (2-1)

AFC Conference Championship

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, January 18th, 2009 at 6:30 PM ET

ME: It's a toss-up! (but really, Pittsburgh wins 17-14)

Literally, I'm not sure I can pick a winner. Pittsburgh is favored by 6 points, but it will be much closer than that. People are continuing to say that Baltimore has more motivation and "third time's the charm" but that's just bull. Pittsburgh is just as motivated as Baltimore is. The two teams have the hottest defenses in the league right now and both QB's have very similar abilities and are about one inch and 10 pounds size difference. Ben Roethlisberger will be playing in his third career AFC Championship game and this defense seems to have a little more playoff experience on their side but that's about it. Like I said earlier, though, Pittsburgh seems to be healthy for the first time in what, 12 or 13 weeks at least. Baltimore's defense did struggle to stop Tennessee's run in the first half of last game, Pittsburgh will need to mimic what Tennessee's Chris Johnson did while actually on the field. I picked a generic score of about 17-14 and flipped a coin. Baltimore won two out of three times. But, I'm going against those odds and saying Pittsburgh wins. Call me bias all you want, I'm not a professional, I do what I want!

Madden '09: BAL 17, PIT 20

Ed Reed picked off Ben Roethlisberger once and sacks him twice, but James Harrison and James Farrior lead Pittsburgh's defense with 2 sacks each (PIT sacked Joe Flacco 6 total times), and Troy Polamalu picked him off twice. Ray Lewis led Baltimore's hard-hitting defense with 13 tackles and a sack as Roethlisberger completed 18 of his 29 passes for 202 yards. Hines Ward was clutch as he caught seven passes for 89 yards and the game-winning 24-yard TD catch with less than a minute to play. Jeff Reed's two 40+ yard FG's were huge, too. Baltimore got off to a 14-0 start and led 14-3 at the half. But, just like most other games this season, Roethlisberger led a second-half comeback. Pittsburgh outscored Baltimore 17-3 in the third and fourth quarters on their way to another Super Bowl appearance.

WIS: BAL 7, PIT 6

Talk about a defensive slugfest! In the end, Baltimore late big-play makes the difference. Rookie QB Joe Flacco throws a 79-yard bomb to TE Todd Heap with just under four minutes remaining. Heap has made a couple big plays in the past couple of games and he had 94 of Flacco's 174 passing yards in the one-point win. Ray Lewis' 10 tackles and Ed Reed and Justin Bannan's interceptions of Ben Roethlisberger make the difference in the game as Roethlisberger goes 11 of 22 for 99 yards and 2 INT's. The game may not have been as close if veteran kicker Matt Stover hadn't missed the 45-yard field goal attempt in the third quarter for Baltimore.

Overall: PIT (2-1)

Super Bowl Match-up:

Philadelphia v.s. Pittsburgh

Battle of PA!

Steelers, Titans to Play for Home-Field Advantage

He has done it, Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has taken his team to the playoffs for the second straight season after clinching the AFC North division and a first round bye with a controversial win over Pittsburgh's fiercest rival. The Baltimore Ravens are, of course, that fierce rival I just mentioned. Despite being down nearly all four quarters of the game, the 11-3 Steelers defeated the 9-5 Ravens, 13-9 this past Sunday in Baltimore. I will be one of the first to admit the refs blew the call on the lone touchdown of the game (with under a minute remaining). Wide receiver Santonio Holmes' feet were in the end zone, but the ball was not, which is the most important thing. The ball must break the plane and it didn't. But, nonetheless, the Steelers picked up their 11th win and yet another playoff appearance. Tomlin clinched his second playoff berth in his second season as an NFL head coach. Quite an accomplishment, if you ask me.

Both offenses in Pitt/Bal's matchup played horrificly, turning the ball over several times. Rookie Qb Joe Flacco looked cool under the pressure of the number one defense in the NFL, for a while anyway. It didn't take long for the front seven to rattle Flacco up, and he was picked off twice in the game, the second INT clinched the win for Pittsburgh in the 40-degree weather.

You can cry and complain all you want if your Baltimore, but that isn't going to change the outcome. The best thing for Baltimore is to move on and prepare for their Saturday night matchup with the playoff-hungry Dallas Cowboys. This game will make or break the season for both teams involved. We will get to see what Flacco is made of when he goes up against the NFL's sack leader, DeMarcus Ware, who is 3 1/2 sacks shy of Michael Strahan's single-season sack record of 22 1/2.

As for Pittsburgh, Coach Tomlin and his crew will be put to the test once again on Sunday, December 21st when the top-ranked defense will face off with the run-oriented offense of the Tennessee Titans. Head coach Jeff Fisher has made it his priority to play smash-mouth football--running the ball down the opponents throat and packing a mighty punch on defense. Tennessee's backfield consists of powerful running back, LenDale White and the elusive rookie Chris Johnson, who was selected to this year's AFC Pro Bowl roster. According to White, the explosive duo is the original smash and dash. In other words, White claims he came up with Carolina Panthers' RB's DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewarts nicknames of "Smash" and "Dash," and they stole the idea from him. Either way, the duo of the vet and the rookie will give Pittsburgh a run for their money, especially if Pittsburgh can't get their running game going early and often.

The winner of the heavily-anticipated game will likely determine the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. Meaning they are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and will most likely play all their starters despite already being in the playoffs.

Yes, it is week 16 starting tomorrow night when the wild card hopeful Indianapolis Colts, 10-4, play their fifth out of the team's six divisional games, against the disappointed Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9). Peyton Manning is almost certain to have another big fantasy day on his way to leading the Colts to their 11th win and a playoff berth.

A Colts win would mean the Ravens, Dolphins, Jets and Pats (depending on week 16 outcomes) are all competing for the last playoff spot. Two of the four teams, all of which are having solid seasons, would be left out of the picture come January (since one of the three named AFC East teams would finish the season with the division title). Who will it be? Well, we have yet to find out if Matt Cassel is capable of leading the Pats to a snowy December win in Foxboro, and the Dolphins and Jets are both on hot streaks (MIA: won 7 of last 8, NYJ: won 7 of last 10), so I'm gonna say the AFC East division will come down to the Dolphins and Jets.

But, Baltimore has also been playing great on both sides of the ball and have won seven of their last nine games. My bold prediction is Indy wins fifth seed with win over Jacksonville, Baltimore wins sixth seed with an 11-5 record and Miami wins out to clinch the East with an 11-5 record.

Flacco or Ryan?: The Great ROY Debate!

What do Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan have in common? Many things actually.

Both of these 23 year old rookie QB's have turned their respective NFL teams around in just 12 games this season. Both these guys are rather large, Ryan stands at 6 foot 4 inches, Flacco at 6 foot 6 inches. Both of these guys look like veteran QB's, similar to Brett Favre of the Jets and Kurt Warner of the Cardinals (only difference is neither are quite to the level of HOF status, just yet).

What's even scarier is that the two rookie signal-callers have nearly identical numbers. Both Flacco's Baltimore Ravens and Ryan's Atlanta Falcons currently stand at 8-4 and are in the heart of the wild card race. Go right ahead and take a gander at the numbers

Joe Flacco, BAL, QB- 12 games, 202 for 331 (61%), 2,276 passing yards, 12 TD passes, 9 INT's, 23 sacks, 82.3 QB Rating

Matt Ryan, ATL, QB- 12 games, 203 for 333 (61%), 2,625 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 6 INT's, 13 sacks, 91.2 QB Rating

As you can see, the numbers are pretty similar. But, Ryan gets the edge. Ryan has attempted two more passes than Flacco, yet he has nearly 350 more passing yards than his opponent, Flacco. The QB rating is a great way to measure a QB's production, and Ryan's, thanks to his 13 TD passes and just 13 sacks, is nearly 10 points highers than Flacco's (QB rating). Both Baltimore and Atlanta have pretty balanced attacks when it comes to offense. But, Flacco has more support behind him thanks to Baltimore's stingy defense.

Led by veteran LB Ray Lewis and all-pro safety Ed Reed, Baltimore reps the second best total defense in the NFL right now, allowing just 253.3 yards per game. Against the run, Baltimore is one of only four teams yet to allow over 1,000 rushing yards on the season (along with Pittsburgh, New York (Jets) and Minnesota). While they are second in the League in passing yards allowed per game, 175.1.

The Falcons defense, on the other hand, cannot say the same thing. But, the the overall 22nd best defense in the League of 32 teams have yet to drag Matt Ryan and the offense, ranked sixth best in the league, down.

As far as offensive support goes, both teams have solid running games. The fumble resistant Willis McGahee heads Baltimore's third ranked rushing team, while former LT backup, Michael Turner, has helped Atlanta's second ranked run game with over 1,200 yards on the ground. Ryan has gotten plenty, and I mean plenty, of production from Pro Bowl bound wide receiver Roddy White, this season. Though White, 69 receptions for 1,085 yards and six TD's this season, may be the only noteworthy wideout on Atlanta's depth chart. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta's #2 WR, has hauled in just 34 passes for 520 yards and three TD's for the third place Falcons. Luckily, for Flacco, Baltimore has more consistency lining up wide for him.

The always reliable veteran Derrick Mason has 800+ receiving yards (projected for 1,081 in '08), and the playmaker Mark Clayton have been great targets for Flacco. A healthy Todd Heap would really help this passing attack out, a lot. But, many have forgotten about the rookie RB Ray Rice, who has done an outstanding job running routes (31 receptions for 264 yards, 8.5 YPC) for Flacco.

Rookie of the Year pick??

It has to be Ryan at this point in the season. People thought Atlanta had no chance at all this season. Yes, I know that many people, outside of Baltimore, thought the same thing about Baltimore. But there was certainly a lot more confidence coming from Baltimore's fans, and as of this weekend, Baltimore has performed up to all the hype. But Ryan's numbers are better with less support than what Flacco has gotten in Baltimore.

Other Potential ROY winners:

Matt Forte, RB, CHI- 1,012 yards, 6 TD (4.1 YPC)

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN- 958 yards, 7 TD (4.7 YPC)

My vote for ROY is going to Matt Ryan, Quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons (even though I really don't even have a say in the voting!). Oh well...

Steelers Take Control of AFC North With Win over Baltimore

Yes, yes, the Pittsburgh Steelers improved to 3-1 to take the AFC North lead. But, not all was good in Pittsburgh last night. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger looked pretty good on his first drive of the game, right after his defense forced Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens to a three and out. Big Ben led the Steelers 45 yards down the field on 11 plays, and Jeff Reed split the uprights from 49 yards out. But, the rest of the first half looked pretty ugly for the offense. Their second drive ended in an interception caught by defensive lineman Haloti Ngata. In the final 15:29 seconds of the first half the Steeler offense went -3 yards, and all three of their drives ended with Mitch Berger punts.

I guess it's a good thing Joe Flacco, and the Baltimore offense had trouble getting anything started on offense, too.

The Raven offense started off ugly as Flacco fumbled the ball on the first snap of the game. He did manage to recover the ball, but went -6 yards on their first two drives of the game. A Matt Stover field goal with just over 5 minutes to play in the opening quarter tied the game at 3 a piece. It looked like the game may be 3-3 at the end of regulation. But, Flacco and FB Le'Ron McClain, who had to step it up after RB Willis McGahee left the game with an injury, led the Ravens down the field early in the second quarter for a Stover 20-yard field goal. Then, late in the same quarter Baltimore scored again. This time, Flacco threw his only TD pass of the evening with a 4-yard lob to TE Daniel Wilcox, and the Stover extra point put the Ravens ahead 13-3.

Roethlisberger failed to score with seconds left in the half, and went into the locker room down ten points to the then 2-0, Division rivals.

With star RB, Willie Parker inactive for the game, rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall stepped in to make his first career start. Mendenhall ran for 30 yards on 9 carries, and just one catch for six yards before leaving the game with a fractured shoulder. Both Mendenhall, and starting right guard for Pittsburgh, Kendall Simmons, will be placed on the injured reserve, ending their season. Simmons suffered a torn achilles, which may take some time to heal. Former Minnesota Vikings RB Mewelde Moore, who has been doing some kick returning for the Steelers this season, may have to make his first start at RB with Pittsburgh next week if Parker still can't go.

This, of course, is very bad news. Another blow to the already poor offensive line, which gave up three sacks in the OT win. I have yet to mention the injury to the third-string RB Carey Davis. Davis suffered an ankle injury shortly after replacing the rookie Mendenhall, and even if he is able to play next week, he obviously won't be 100 percent.

The good news?? Well, even after running for just 2.5 yards a carry (28 attempts for 69 yards throughout the entire game), and picking up just three first-half first downs (11 total), the Steelers came out winners.

Yes, that's right. Roethlisberger started half number two a little shaky, just like the entire first half. But on their third drive of the half, managed to finally get into the end zone on a connection between Roethlisberger and play-maker Santonio Holmes. The play was fueled by an earlier mistake committed by Jarret Johnson who was flagged 15 yards for yet another unsportsmanlike conduct. The mistake kept the Steelers alive, and Big Ben stayed calm as he threw the 38-yard bomb. Flacco made his first critical mistake two plays later on a fumble deep inside their own territory. Second-year LB Lamarr Woodley scooped the ball up and walked 7 yards for a second touchdown. Reed's extra point gave Pittsburgh the 17-13 lead, and the momentum had suddenly shifted.

Pittsburgh's tight defense shut the Ravens out in the third quarter. But even after another Reed field goal (19-yarder) put the Steelers ahead 7, they weren't able to put the game away just yet. "Joe Cool" ran back onto the field looking to plead his case as the Ravens' franchise QB, and I'm pretty sure coach John Harbaugh heard him loud and clear. The University of Delaware alumnist conducted a five minute, 76-yard scoring drive in just 9 plays. His wonderful performance was capped by a two-yard run for McClain. 20-20.

Neither teams were able to score in the last four minutes of regulation, and the game headed to overtime, where Baltimore won the toss and, of course, elected to receive the kick first. Pittsburgh's D came up big again, and quickly forced a Baltimore punt, and Roethlisberger led the Steelers down the field to set up a potential game-winning field goal attempt by the seven-year veteran. Reed, of course, kicked it through the uprights, just barely though. Steelers win 23-20 in a hard fought, smashmouth football game. Just like I suspected.

Top performers:

BAL Derrick Mason- 8 rec, 137 yards, 0 TD

PIT Santonio Holmes- 3 rec, 60 yards, 1 TD

BAL Ray Lewis- 13 tackles (7 solo)

PIT James Harrison- 11 tackles (6 solo), 2.5 sacks

Let's all just hope Andre Frazier can walk again, and soon. Frazier suffered a spine injury on the opening kickoff. Hopefully he and "Fast Willie" will be back on that field soon.