Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs

With all the talk of Brett Favre this and Brett Favre that, the Dolphins sneaky-quick acquisition of Chad Pennington went relatively unnoticed. Can’t you just picture Bill Parcells shaking his head in disbelief that Pennington was basically placed in the teams lap? I sure can.

Now I’m not saying Chad Pennington is going to have some type of comeback year for the ages or anything, but I am saying he’s a perfectly capable QB that was the answer to the receiving corps prayers. Think about it. One of the following QB’s was currently slated to be slinging balls for the offense, and likely to the wrong team. Complete with career stats:

Josh McCown: 609 for 1052 (57.9%), 6582 yards, 35 TD’s, 40 INT’s. He is entering his seventh NFL season.

John Beck: 60 for 107 (56.1%), 559 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT’s. He is entering his second NFL season.

Chad Henne: Has not yet started an NFL game and would have to go through the necessary growing pains expected of rookie QB’s.

Could one of those players ended up having a good 2008? Absolutely. Would you want to put any type of money on that? I doubt it. Now, let’s take a look at the QB the world forgot about, Chad Pennington:

Chad Pennington: 1259 for 1919 (65.6%), 13738 yards, 82 TD’s, 55 INT’s. He is entering his ninth NFL season.

Uh, yeah. I’ll take Pennington, thanks.

Anyway, with that obvious but necessary piece out of the way, let’s take a look at Jerricho Cotchery’s stats the year he played a bit part on offense and wasn’t on the field too much.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2005): 19 receptions, 251 yards, 0 TD’s (12 games played, 1 game started)

Now, we know that Pennington was on the team in 2005, but Cotchery wasn’t given enough playing time to benefit from that. He was also still learning the intricacies of the WR position, with it being only his second year in the league and his first with some good, solid playing time. Let’s take a look at Ted Ginn Juniors stats in his first year in the league:

Ted Ginn Jr.
(2007): 34 receptions, 420 yards, 2 TD’s (16 games played, 9 games started)

It’s easy to see that Ginn had much more of a role in his rookie year than Cotchery had in his first two years in the NFL combined. Because of this, Ginn is likely well-entrenched in the verses of the WR position. Now let’s take a look at Cotchery’s first year with a starting role in the offense, one that formally introduced him to Chad Pennington.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2006): 82 receptions, 961 yards, 6 TD’s (16 games started)

Not bad. A lot of that can be attributed to Cotchery’s talent but couldn’t some of it also be placed on Pennington? Cotchery was targeted 125 times in 2006 and the ball managed to find itself safely in his hands 82 of those times. Pennington may be knocked for his lack of any kind of powerful arm, but the man is accurate. He’s completed nearly two thirds of his throws his entire career. All in all, I think it’s safe to assume that he’s a quality QB.

With Cotchery barely able to build a rapport with Pennington in 2005 due to the small amount of playing time, the two essentially built a connection throughout the 2006 season itself. Cotchery was also the second option for Pennington, with Laveranues Coles easily claiming the title of both WR1 and the QB’s favorite receiver.

Jumping back to the present, Ginn is the clear cut WR1 on a Dolphins offense that’s looking to begin moving forward after some serious off-season patch-up work. What does that mean? It means that Ginn will likely benefit from not only more targets (he had 71 last year), but also from a competent QB who can consistently throw the ball in his general vicinity.

Is it that much of a stretch to think that Ginn could put up similar numbers to what Cotchery churned out in 2006? No. It’s definitely not. The stretch would lie in how much better you think Ginn could do. Cotchery was targeted 125 times as the WR2 but also benefited from having a superb receiver lining up opposite of him in Laveranues Coles. Ginn saw 71 targets last year as a rookie and it was a year in which he didn’t get much playing time until Chris Chambers left before Week 7.

I would say that 125 targets for Ginn is a basement estimate. With reports that Ronnie Brown may have to start the season at a snails pace thanks to his finger injury, the Dolphins are sure to lean on Pennington until Brown returns. No offense to Ricky Williams since I’m sure he’ll contribute somewhat, but I want to see how he looks during an actual game that means something. The guy is 31 years old and not counting last years disappointing six attempt season, hasn’t played a substantial amount of time in the NFL in what’s now approaching three years. If thinking the Dolphins are going to pass a lot makes me crazy then so be it. I don’t want to be sane.

In the interests of being realistic and not allowing the predictions to get out of hand, I say it’s safe to pencil in Ginn for at least 130 targets. Please note the ‘at least’ part of that statement. Out of the 130 balls thrown to him, say 10 get called back by penalties or are nullified for whatever reason. Chad Pennington’s career completion percentage is 65.6% but we’ll give age and a change in living situation the benefit of the doubt here and say he’ll complete 60% of his passes this year. That’s probably the bare minimum. Add in a quick entrance from our friend the calculator and that leaves us with the following projection:

2008 Projection

Ted Ginn Jr: 130 targets, 72 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD’s

And that is being GENEROUS with the negative outside factors. Barring some type of major injuries to Ginn himself, Pennington or the offensive line, that stat line could very easily be achieved by Ginn unless he’s managed to lose his football talent somehow during the off-season.

Aaaand... scene!

A Case For Brodie Croyle

Brodie Croyle was 0-6 in his starts last year, so why should you break him off a piece of that forgiveness bar you ask? Well, let's find out.

To start off, let's take a look at some stats from last year:

The Denver Broncos – 7th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Indianapolis Colts – 2nd ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Oakland Raiders – 8th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The Tennessee Titans – 10th ranked pass defense in the NFL

The New York Jets – 9th ranked pass defense in the NFL

What do these teams have in common you say? Well, each accounted for one (two in the Broncos case) of Brodie Croyle’s six major losses last year. As I’m sure you noticed, each of them finished with a top ten passing defense for the year.

Now while I’m the first to admit that Croyle looked pretty bad regardless of who he played, isn’t it worth taking into account that every single one of his losses came against a highly skilled passing defense? Plus, he was practically a rookie last year!

Not only did he not have his RB (and Rockafella fan) Larry Johnson on the field to help take the focus off him, he was also playing behind an incredibly suspect offensive line that is ranked near the bottom of nearly every offensive line ranking list out there. Add the two together and what do you get? That's right, the stirring of something in your stomach. That is what's called sympathy and you may be starting to feel it for the Chiefs young QB for the very first time.

I’m not trying to say that the kid is going to go on and have a Hall of Fame career and yes, the offensive line still has issues, but with Larry Johnson back behind him isn’t it fair to cut him a break for last year and wait to see what he does this season? Am I asking too much? Am I missing anything here? Do I ask too many questions?

Think about it. Croyle went 127 for 224 (56.7% completion percentage) and threw for 1,227 yards. He averaged 5.5 yards per attempt and matched his 6 touchdowns with 6 interceptions.

Call me crazy but for a first year starter that isn’t a bad line. Normally an equal touchdown to interception ratio wouldn't be a good thing but it was his first year as a starter. Not too shabby. Especially when you consider the murderers row of passing defenses he faced during his starts last year.

Anyway, doesn’t all of this warrant giving him a free pass for last season? It was his first year and he had an incredibly difficult schedule. For all we know, he’s been studying up and learning the playbook and will come out guns-a-blazing this season.

Or he will continue his losing streak and prove the tough schedule he had was just a coincidence. Let's hear it!

Shanahan Running Back Syndrome: An Explanation?

Presently, fantasy owners tend to stay away from Denver running backs as if they had Ebola. You know, the disease where you bleed from every orifice? Yeah, that one.

This is because in the past few years Mike Shanahan has decided that his team shall use a running back by committee, even when it does not make sense in the way it is being used. To be fair, Shanahan was the trend-setter in regards to the current committee running back situations we’re now faced with. Or shall I say, burdened with. Not that knowing the running back’s backup and backup’s backup is a bad thing. It’s just that if we didn’t need to, we could be spending that research time on other things like you know, our families.

Most of all that is common knowledge. What isn’t, is why it’s all happened in the first place. I’ve never heard an explanation, nor could I find one with specifically phrased searches through Google. So in the interests of fantasy owners who have been met their downfall thanks to a committee backfield in Denver, I embarked on a quest. I did not know where it would take me nor did I know what I would find. I just knew that it was a quest worth taking. I’m not promising an answer to the whole thing but as you’ll find at the end, a logical suggestion.





THE MILE HIGH RUNNING BACK FACTORY

In the wake of Terrell Davis’ retirement right before the 2002 season, the Denver Broncos became known as a running back factory. It seemed that no matter who the running back was, they would rack up at least 1200 yards and a half dozen TD’s. That stat mark, surprisingly was the minimum for that time and was set by Reuben Droughns in 2004. Yes, you read that correctly. Had you forgotten that Droughns was actually relevant once upon a time? It’s understandable.

Clinton Portis would alter Broncos fans‘ opinions that Davis could not be replaced rather quickly in 2002. At least the opinion that 1508 rushing yards 15 TD’s was a suitable replacement. Portis would follow his breakout rookie season with an even better one in 2003. He would rush for more yards (1591), but one less touchdown (14). Oh yeah, Portis also played in only 13 games in 2003 compared with all 16 the previous year. It puts the whole thing into better perspective, I think.

Following (what would soon come to be) an annual decimation of the team by the Indianapolis Colts 41-10 in the Wild Card round, Portis would be traded to the Washington Redskins straight-up for shut down corner Champ Bailey. The trade made sense because the passing game had needed help, but many wondered how the running game would fare now that Terrell Davis’ worthy successor had been traded away.

The answer to that question would lie in a Broncos fullback named Reuben Droughns. After rushing for 1240 yards and 6 TD’s, many declared Shanahan a genius in his scouting of running backs. Droughns would go onto Cleveland after just one year as a starter in Denver. There, he would put up another respectable season (1232 yards and 2 TD’s) in 2005 and then fall off the face of the earth. At least in terms of being a starting RB.

Once Droughns was shipped to Cleveland, that was it in terms of having just one starting RB. Over the next three years Shanahan’s approach to the running game would shift dramatically. He would use at least two but sometimes three different RB’s throughout the season.


A NEW PHILOSOPHY

While it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly where Shanahan shifted towards this new mentality, my best guess is Week 1 in 2005 at Dolphins Stadium. Anderson had gotten the start and was likely primed to be the starter for the rest of the year except that he got roughed up, bruised his ribs and effectively changed the landscape of fantasy football for the remainder of time. Way to go, Mike.

Into the game stepped Tatum Bell a rookie out of Oklahoma State. Although the team was shellacked 34-10 by the Dolphins and Bell only rushed for 47 yards on 13 carries with no TD’s, the teams backfield was never quite the same. Bell had to have done something.

Opinions here can vary. Either you can think Shanahan was going to use both Anderson and Bell from the get go or you can think Anderson’s injury and something about Bell’s performance in that game changed his perception somehow. One would make sense while the other would not. At least not as much.

Take into account the rest of what happened. In 2006, with Anderson gone and Bell poised to be the starter, Shanahan would give more than half of Tatum’s carries to an un-drafted rookie free agent named Mike Bell. The fact they both had the last name Bell only proved to further frustrate fantasy owners who had banked on Tatum, but not on this un-drafted Mike character. It was here that the legend of Mike Shanahan not being a big a fan of fantasy football would begin. It would only multiply exponentially in 2007.

With Tatum Bell gone, Mike Shanahan decided not to give his only remaining Bell any shot at the starting job at all. This is because the team had signed free agent Travis Henry and two more un-drafted rookie FA’s Selvin Young and Andre Hall. Hey, I never said this whole thing was going to make sense.

Although Henry and Young would split the majority of the carries, Shanahan designated Hall worthy of his own 44 carries. The ordeal was so traumatizing for some fantasy owners that many swore off Denver Broncos RB’s for the rest of their lives. Many have stayed true to that claim to this very day.


WHERE WE STAND CURRENTLY

With both Selvin Young and Andre Hall still on the team, Shanahan went ahead and gave the go-ahead to draft another rookie RB in the fifth round of the draft. He was out of Arizona State and his name is Ryan Torain.

Unfortunately for Ryan, he dislocated his elbow, did some ligament damage to it and will likely miss three months minimum. While I would not even think about suggesting that this injury was incurred due to the mass amount of karma directed at the Broncos RB situation from fantasy football owners who had put stake in them, I could go ahead and say that it may have opened up an opportunity for Shanahan to go back to a one-back system.

Or if you’ve already solved the mystery, will realize that 2008 will just become another chapter in the wondrous story that is Mike Shanahan’s running back depth chart management. Here’s a Scooby Snack for you.


THE THEORY THAT EXPLAINS IT ALL

When you read the history of the whole ordeal as I have so succinctly put it and then sit back and think about it, it will likely just dawn on you. It’s really the only thing that would make sense next to Mike Shanahan actually trying and enjoying his toying with the game of fantasy football. Since that reason has never really sat right with me, the new one I’ve come up with makes a lot more sense.

Think about it. What other possibility could there be for someone to go all-in on not one, but TWO un-drafted rookie RB’s? And then have it work for them? And THEN proceed to draft another rookie in the fifth round of the very next draft? Why on earth would someone do that? I don’t care how much he dislikes fantasy football, I don’t think he’s going to involve a whole draft selection in order to mess give in to his hatred.

We’ve all come to the conclusion that Mike Shanahan is a supreme evaluator of RB talent. That much is certain. But why would he just not use one back? Why use multiple ones year after year, especially after having had so many successful years with just one starting RB? The answer?

The can of Coke is always hall-full for Mike Shanahan.

He’s an optimist.

An optimist with a Hall of Fame eye for RB talent, but an optimist none-the-less.

Fantasy Extravaganza: The Top 20 QB's

I was going to make this a top 30 like the running back edition but ended up not having too much fun digging through the dregs of the league’s QB’s in order to rank the late twenties. Always one to alter things on the fly if it will convenience me, I cut the list down to the top 20. My temples have since thanked me for it.

As always, enjoy and feel free to question my sanity in your replies!

20. Matt Leinart (ARI)

Despite having a man 12 years his senior as the only other option at QB, Matt Leinart’s position as the Cardinals starter is not set in stone. Once it finally dawns on Leinart that he is indeed an NFL quarterback, he has the skills and weapons to succeed. All he needs to do is put the work in both on the field and in the film room. I mean, he has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin! Either Leinart claims the starter spot as his own this year or he replaces Reggie Bush’s status as the highest profile bust of the 2006 draft.

19. Vince Young (TEN)

Even though he regressed last year, Vince Young didn’t have much to work with either. It appeared he realized some of the things he got away with in Texas and his rookie season might not work as well anymore. With former offensive coordinator Norm Chow now gone and his rapport with his promising WR duo of Justin Gage and Roydell Williams growing all the while, we’ll likely get a real glimpse of the path his career is taking this year.

18. Jason Campbell (WAS)

Apparently realizing their WR corps needed an upgrade, the Redskins organization attempted to trade for off-the-field diva and touchdown celebration extraordinaire Chad Johnson right before the draft. When that failed, they instead selected 2 WR’s and 1 TE in the second round to add to their West Coast offense and more importantly, Jason Campbell’s arsenal. If Campbell can pick up the West Coast quickly enough, he will have the tools and be given the throws to make a huge leap in what will be his second full year as a starter.

17. Jon Kitna (DET)

With the departure of Mike Martz, many of the Jon Kitna supports have mysteriously fallen by the wayside. He’s likely to get less attempts than last year, but not dramatically so due to the mix of inexperience and under-achievement that makes up the backfield. If the offensive line can manage not to give up the league lead in sacks again, Kitna has some lethal options on offense. He could surprise everyone for the second year in a row and not be a bust easier than you may think. Let’s hope he shoots for fourteen wins this year.

16. Philip Rivers (SD)

Antonio Gates has accounted for nearly 30% of Philip Rivers career passing yards. While Gates obviously won’t be out for more than a few games, it will be interesting to see how Rivers begins the season without his favorite target and safety net right there with him. Rivers also has his own health to worry about, coming off of off-season ACL surgery. If everyone can stay health and Rivers can focus on things like getting the ball to Chris Chambers more instead of jawing with the fans, he could return to 2006 form. If not? Well, those are the types of gambles you take in take in fantasy football, friend.

15. Eli Manning (NYG)

Unless your in a no-interceptions league or have been living under a rock the past year, you probably noticed that despite being a Super Bowl champion QB, Eli Manning didn’t quite look it during the regular season. A Super Bowl win very well could have sparked something in Eli and cause him to play like he did in the post-season. Or he could revert to the old Eli, throw just as many picks as TD’s and appear perfectly okay that his own receiver just cursed him out for three minutes even though he was the one who fudged the route. Only time will tell but is it too much to ask to see some intensity? Drink a Red Bull! Huff some flavored oxygen! Look alive out there!

14. Matt Schaub (HOU)

The Falcons must have seriously kicked themselves in the ass when the Vick saga finally opened the door for Matt Schaub to start, except that he had actually shipped out to Houston. Talk about bad timing! Despite injuries to nearly his entire body, Schaub showed last year that when healthy, he is the real deal. Key words there are “when” and “healthy”. If you don’t mind the risks, Schaub’s upside is tempting.

13. Marc Bulger (STL)

To the poorly-rounded fan, Marc Bulger’s 2007 stats may look atrocious and send them running in the other direction (2,392 passing yards, 11 TD’s, 15 INT’s). However, to those of us with NFL Sunday Ticket those stats are actually quite impressive. Stephen Jackson missed most of the year, that much is common knowledge. So is the fact that the Rams offensive line suffered a black plague-esque injury bug. Bulger may have been better off taking his chances with stationary practice pads in hopes they would at least slow the pass-rush down a bit. You see, for those of us who watched most of his games -- the fact that he even put up those numbers and didn’t have to retire is a wonder. With the offensive line all healthy again and Stephen Jackson one bill-day away from reporting back to camp, Bulger can actually focus on completeling passes instead of what his emergency room co-pay is.

12. Jay Cutler (DEN)

Even with Brandon Marshall suspended for the first few games, Jay Cutler should start off his second full season just fine -- causing Broncos fans to cringe at the mere thought that they once went into an NFL season with Jake Plummer manning the offense. Cutler has proven after last years performance that he was indeed the hidden golden ticket of the 2006 QB draft class. The Cardinals and Titans have been left with just Wonka bars. Delicious, no doubt, but not the grand prize that is a golden ticket! With potential question marks at receiver besides Brandon Marshall, Cutler will likely rely on the up and coming TE Tony Scheffler (and to a lesser extent Brandon Stokley) until both Marshall is back and he has become well-acquainted with newbie’s Keary Colbert and Darrel Jackson.

11. Derek Anderson (CLE)

Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise in 2007 and if you claim otherwise, than you sir are a bull-faced liar. Surrounded by one of the most potent offenses in the game, Anderson has a weapon to utilize in almost every conceivable offensive situation. Although he tailed off at the end of the season, big game jitters and some inconsistent play from the rest of the team contributed to his poor performances. Anderson didn’t appear too worried with Brady Quinn waiting in the wings last year, but it will remain to be seen if he’ll handle it that way after a media circus and 23-hour coverage on ESPN ensues after his first poor performance.

10. David Garrard (JAC)

Many people questioned Jack Del Rio’s decision to with David Garrard over Byron Leftwich at the start of last year. After guaranteeing it was the wrong move and telling everyone to write it down, these people showed us all why they work behind a desk and not for an actual NFL team when Garrard excelled and Leftwich imploded in Atlanta. Although many people describe a conservative QB like it’s a bad thing, Garrard has both the poise to know when to go for a big play and the skill to make it happen.

9. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)

Not only has Matt Hasselbeck proved to be one of the funniest players in the game, he has also proved to be a solid fantasy option for what seems like forever. With Deion Branch likely out for most of the season, Hasselbeck finds himself tasked with throwing once again to a question group of WR. At least this year the Seahawks will have a running game, no matter how many RB’s are a part of it. If it were a lesser QB, there would be cause for concern. However, Hasselbeck is one of the few QB’s who no one really doubts despite not having a clear number 1 option.

8. Brett Favre (NYJ)

Although we’d like to believe otherwise now that Brett Favre’s been traded to New York, all of the Favre coverage isn’t going anywhere. In fact, Vegas has been rumored to have set the number of Brett Favre mentions this year on NFL Live at 300. That’s roughly two separate mentions per show -- and people are taking the over! Blatantly failed attempts at humor aside, the Jets were the best landing spot next to Tampa Bay. I don’t think anyone will argue that the Jets will provide Favre with more weapons than he would have had in Tampa. You can now begin reassessing the entire Jets offense in regards to how positively affected they will be with Favre’s arrival. I for one say Thomas Jones will benefit the most.

7. Donovan McNabb (PHI)

All throughout his career, save for the time with Terrell Owens that we’re supposed to pretend never happened, McNabb has never had many high quality receivers. At least not on a consistent basis. The major knock against McNabb is that he gets injured. A lot. Usually, it’s not that bad of a idea when drafting him to just hope for 12 games -- with anything more just being extra. Although Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown aren’t considered elite receivers by any means, they did prove to be effective targets for McNabb last season. It also doesn’t help having perhaps the best receiving back in the game -- especially one coming off of a 2,000+ yards from scrimmage season. It could be argued that McNabb is perhaps the biggest starting QB injury risk this year -- however it could also be argued that if he stays healthy, he could put up MVP type numbers. Ah -- decisions, decisions.

6. Carson Palmer (CIN)

Despite being on the team who’s nickname is often associated with being arrested and going to jail, Carson Palmer continues to put up quality numbers. Even last year, when he barely had a running game he threw for 4,131 yards and 26 TD’s. Yes, he had 20 INT’s which obviously isn’t good but the guy is only human. Now with Ben Utecht as the starting TE, Palmer will find himself in a situation he has never really experienced before: He has a TE who can catch the ball! While all signs point towards another solid season, it would behoove you to take the lingering time bomb that is Chad Johnson into account. On one hand, Johnson realized he was being selfish and goes through the season in typical Ocho Cinco fashion (1400 yards, 8 TD’s). On the other hand, you would have The Terrell Owens Saga 2: Now Featuring Chad Johnson occurring. Say what you want about T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but if Chad Johnson ends up leaving Cincinnati then it will definitely reflect itself significantly in Palmer’s numbers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

Although he threw for less yards than the previous year, Ben Roethlisberger improved upon his TD total tenfold (from 18 in 2006 to 32 in 2007). With an offense that remains largely the same, save for the departure of guard Alan Faneca, it is not out of the question that the arrival of Rashard Mendenhall and Limas Sweed could perhaps help increase Ben’s touchdown total. Of course, that would mean he would have to stay on par with his performance from last year and since his play has differed from year to year. This could be blamed on his off-year in 2006 and thinking otherwise may be overanalyzing it.

4. Drew Brees (NO)

After a horrendous start to the year in which had many fantasy owners begrudging the reasons they took him, Drew Brees got right back on track and actually finished with similar numbers to 2006 -- albeit with seven more interceptions. It’s scary to think what he could have posted had he started the season like the Drew Brees we know and love (or hate, if he’s burned your team). If Deuce McAllister can come back healthy and Devery Henderson can step it up then we may again see the offensive firepower that the Saints exhibited in 2006 during their failed run to the Super Bowl. And that would be a good thing for Drew Brees owners.

3. Peyton Manning (IND)

It’s eventually going to happen. Peyton Manning will begin to regress. While I’m not saying he’s not going to have a great season, I am saying that there’s a chance that the Peyton Manning of yore may be aging into the Peyton Manning in the twilight of his prime. Although he had knee surgery out of the blue, it’s likely not to be a serious factor. Marvin Harrison however, is approaching the age of 37 and is coming off of a limited injury year. Is it out of the question to think that the decline of Marvin Harrison may mean a decline in Peyton Manning as well? Sure, Reggie Wayne is great and can replace Marvin should he continue to have a decreased role -- but the scariest thing about the Colts these past few years has been the Wayne/Harrison combo. While Anthony Gonzalez shows some promise, he’s no Reggie Wayne. The Colts may need to lean even more on there running game which would mean a decreased role for Manning and thus, a decrease in his fantasy points.

2. Tony Romo (DAL)

Despite his playoff failures, Tony Romo has emerged as a fantasy football superstar. Not only does he score you points on the field, but he’ll also be on TV when your out somewhere and you can nudge whoever your with and say, “Hey, he’s on my fantasy team.” Does anyone else feel incredibly weird whenever they say that out loud to someone? If they don’t really know what fantasy sports is, it sounds awfully creepy. Back on topic, Romo has got it all. Although Terry Glenn was effective when he played, his departure will not likely be missed. Nor will his injuries. Patrick Crayton has emerged as a legitimate threat opposite Terrell Owens and rookie Felix Jones brings some of what Julius Jones brought to the table and then some. T.O. is getting up there in age but it’s highly likely you’ve seen him shirtless at some point or another the past few years. Although he is approaching 35 years old, in Terrell Owens fitness years that’s about 27. So there’s no real reason to worry yet. It’s highly unlikely Romo will put up the same numbers as last year but it’s also unlikely he won’t put up some comparably good ones.

1. Tom Brady (NE)

I’m not even going to explain this one. If you don’t know why he’s number one, well then -- just don’t be going and wagering any money on your fantasy leagues. Actually, don’t be wagering your money on anything period.

The Top 10 Fantasy Football Do Not's

Normally I would try and write a riveting introduction to this article -- but I think the title pretty much explains it as much as it needs to be. So, take notes, learn some things and as always -- at least try and enjoy.

This picture has nothing to do with this article, but I thought everyone would probably enjoy it.

10. Taking your team name too seriously

The Beantown Brawlers? Seriously? First off, you’ve never been a brawl. And second off, you don’t even live in Boston. You live in Abington. So either pick a better name, or try and name your team something that doesn’t blatantly reveal that you think your tough and/or take yourself entirely too seriously. On the extreme end of this, don’t name your team something stupid -- like The Windy City Farters. There is lots of opportunity to act like your twelve years old in fantasy football, but naming your team isn’t one of them.

9. Letting your girlfriend/wife in on the action

While I’m all for girlfriend/wife participation to some extent in fantasy sports, you better not be letting it happen if your league is for money. If it is, than you sir, are a dumb ass. If utilized wisely, this “mistake” can actually turn your usual bickering Sundays into easy-riding football marathons. “But honey, we need to watch the Sunday Night Football game because we have Kevin Kolb on our bench and we need to see how he reacts being on an actual bench during a primetime game. It’s one of the keys to our season!”

8. Thinking your “sleepers” will actually turn out to be sleepers

I don’t care how much you know about football, the whole sleeper business is a crock of shit. Most of the sleepers people pick aren’t even sleepers at all, unless you define a sleeper as someone who everyone knew about and wasn‘t all surprised when they began to have a good season. I’m sorry, but Frank Gore is not a sleeper. Idiot.

7. Not having a draft plan

If you just go into a draft with nothing but your “knowledge” to guide you, than I don’t know what to tell you. You need to know your leagues scoring, you need to know how many of each position you need to start and you need to know the inner-workings of those who are drafting with you. This is why I’m a staunch supporter of friend leagues where you can smack-talk face to face, as opposed to the free Yahoo! Leagues in which no one knows each other, but everyone seems to know each others mother. The more you know about your opponents, the better you can add to your draft plan -- and if you don’t have a draft plan at all, then why the hell are you playing fantasy football?

6. Buying too many fantasy football magazines

I can actually attest to committing this mistake. However, one day it hit me. Most of the magazines that are available for fantasy football, or fantasy anything for that matter, have pretty much the same information -- just in a different layout and with slightly different words. It’s sort of like in high school when you tried to turn that one sentence fact into a four paragraph essay. At least, that’s what I did in high school.

5. Buying into hype

Most of the time, hype doesn’t really produce actual results. It just produces enough hype for you to buy into it and eventually lose games, money and points. And as we all know, those three go hand in hand. See: Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart. Hey, they both went to USC. Weird.

4. Buying into upside

Upside is all well and great, but if can often get you into trouble. Most of us aren’t narcissists so we always try and look at the upside of a player but sometimes too much so. Like that time when I called everyone to write down that I was predicting Mewelde Moore as the next great running back. That didn’t turn out so well, as I’m sure you know. It still haunts me to this day.

3. Taking the smack talk just a tad too far

Yes, if your among friends you can push the limits and call a remembrance of the time your friend hooked up with that fat girl that looked like a guy. However, calling a remembrance of the time your recently defeated opponent cried because his cat died -- okay, that’s still okay. Pretty much everything is fair game in regards to smack talk. Just don’t joke about any terminally fatal diseases or anything you asshole.

2. Showing up drunk to the draft

Want to draft three kickers, make four trades and profess your love for your friends brother sister? Then drink up, champ. Nothing kicks off a fantasy football season than showing that your only weakness is a thing called booze -- then having everyone subsequently try and get you drunk and make lopsided trades. It’s fun while your getting free drinks and all, but when you wake up the next morning and discover that you’ve traded Larry Fitzgerald for Mark Clayton and Devery Henderson -- well, that’s not as much fun.

1. As a matter of fact, doing anything drunk in regards to fantasy football

Trades, drafting, smack-talk -- if I had to write a fantasy football guide in regards to ‘Do Not Do These Things’ than alcohol would be prominently involved in each one. Take every reason on this list, add some alcohol and you’ve got yourself a potent mixture that will almost always end badly. If your in a money league, than just don’t get drunk. Just don’t do it. Your either going to drunk dial your ex or trade Stephen Jackson for a bag of jelly beans. Neither will end well.

A Fantasy Extravaganza: Top 30 Running Backs

With approximately 75 fantasy football magazines currently available at any given supermarket, it is safe to assume that the fantasy football season has officially begun. In order to get myself ready, and because I’m so nice I have ranked the top 30 skill position players and then provided the in-depth commentary on why I have done so. Will my rankings differ from yours or many of the other rankings out there? Uh, is an apple different than a stapler? YES! Opinions on all rankings will vary, but just remember that all of the rankings out there are just that, opinion and speculation. My intention is for these rankings to get your mental, fantasy-sports-related juices flowing if they haven't already. Also, due to possible fantasy league spies these rankings may be slightly different from my actual rankings. Or they may not. Only I will know and that’s just the way I’m going to keep it!






As always, enjoy and feel free to disagree vehemently while calling for my head in the comments.

WARNING: This whole thing is pretty long, so you better have some free time to read it or at least be bored at work. Either that or print it out -- it makes excellent bathroom reading I've heard.


TOP 30 FANTASY RUNNING BACKS

30. Jonathan Stewart (CAR) - Although my support for DeAngelo Williams is well documented, even I can’t deny that the talented rookie Jonathan Stewart will win the Panthers starting job. He has power, he has speed and he apparently has the support of nearly every single person in the Panthers organization save for Williams himself. Barring a major setback in his recovery from a toe injury, Stewart should be the new rusher in town as well as provide your team with a decent amount of fantasy points.

29. Julius Jones (SEA) - Even though Jones never did stand out in the Cowboys offense, playing second fiddle to Marion “The Barbarian” Barber and all, a change of scenery and a new offense that will favor the running game might be just what Julius needs. T.J. Duckett will take much of the goal lines carries away, but Jones should be given the bulk of the overall workload. He’s definitely an upside pick, so don’t put too much stake in him or you may regret it when he puts up similar stats from when he was in Dallas.

28. Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) - Regardless of Willie Parker’s rankings free fall due to his broken leg and low 2007 TD total, he will still be the go to guy in Pittsburgh. Mendenhall on the other hand is an upside pick with not a lot of risk since he’s going to be getting most of the goal line carries and spelling an often fragile Parker, anyway.

27. LenDale White (TEN) - Despite playing in an offense with hardly any passing game, White sprung upon the scene last year with 1,108 yards and 7 TD’s. With this being Vince Young’s second year with his primary receivers, White should enjoy an increased amount of defenses dropping more people back to defend the pass. Or at least that’s what the Titans organization hopes. Regardless, even though rookie Chris Johnson may spell him, White should see the majority of carries and goal line attempts.

26. Thomas Jones (NYJ) - The fact that T.J. had a total of two TD’s last year has overshadowed that he managed to rack up 1,119 yards behind one of the worst lines in the league. The off-season signings of Alan Faneca and Damien Woody should ensure that he will at least have a competent offensive line. It’s a risky pick because he’s either going to excel with his improved blockers or flop and show everyone that he just doesn’t have what it takes to be a starter. That decision is up to you.

25. Darren McFadden (OAK) - Despite being touted as the best back in the NFL draft, McFadden is not the top back in most running back rankings. This is likely due to the fact that McFadden will be lining up behind JaMarcus Russell, who is still technically a rookie himself. Since it takes inexperienced quarterbacks a lot longer to get acquainted with the game than their running back counterparts, McFadden will get a plethora of carries and an official diploma from the NFL’s rookie running back university.

24. Fred Taylor (JAX) - The past couple years has seen Fred Taylor do the exact opposite of what everyone had predicted him to do, with that opposite being him producing. Taylor has had more than 1100 yards and at least 5 TD’s in each of his last two seasons. While it’s hard to imagine him just suddenly dropping off, he is 32 years old and it is going to happen eventually. The question is, when? With Maurice Jones Drew entering his third season and maturing all the while, Taylor may still be productive this year but not enough to warrant a key RB spot on your roster. Although he is a solid and safe late round pick. Do with it what you will.

23. Matt Forte (CHI) - With news of the release of team castoff and Ricky Williams-esque Cedric Benson, Forte’s stock has soared. Even before he was the unanimous number one back on the roster, Forte had created a buzz that was not heard during the Draft due to his emergence from Conference USA. Although the Bears themselves have proclaimed the rookie as their starter, he still finds himself on the Bears offense which has question marks at quarterback, wide receiver and pretty much ever single position except for running back. So despite him getting the majority of all the carries, don’t expect his rookie year to be Adrian Peterson-esque. Think more along the lines of a poor mans, rookie Marshawn Lynch.

22. Michael Turner (ATL) - How Michael Turner will turn out can likely be put in a better perspective when you take into account his performance last year when he filled in for an injured L.T. in the playoffs. Although 3.8 yards per carry isn’t necessarily bad, it was a bit worse than his career average that he’d racked up shredding fatigued defenses as Tomlinson’s backup until that point. That was then. Now, Turner finds himself on a Falcons team that is in the process of rebuilding with inexperience at many key parts of the offense. Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at his contract, Turner’s quarterback Matt Ryan is actually a rookie, who will go through the learning curves that plague all rookie signal callers.

21. Edgerrin James (ARI) - Edge has officially turned the magical yet dreadful age of 30, which is the benchmark age for when running backs will begin to decline. After a largely disappointing 2006 considering his success in Indianapolis, Edge improved slightly in 2007 in yards, average and TD’s. Although 1,224 yards and 7 TD’s isn’t necessarily bad, it is safe to say that it may be very close to his ceiling now that he’s turned the big three-oh. Even with promise of a more balanced attack, the Cardinals offensive line is still unfortunately the same and it is likely Edgerrin’s stats will stay that way as well.

20. Willie Parker (PIT) - With Parker’s 11 TD decline from 2006 into 2007, breaking his leg late in the season didn’t help his fantasy stock. The arrival of rookie Rashard Mendenhall also didn’t bode well for his future TD total either. What Parker does bring to the table is the yardage that he racks up. He is still an incredibly skilled rusher that can put up big numbers on the ground no matter how TD-less or injury prone his season may be.

19. Brandon Jacobs (N.Y.G.) - The heir to Tiki Barber’s throne after his retirement, Jacobs proved he could handle the job when healthy. Unfortunately for Jacobs, so did Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. Bradshaw’s recent court troubles could get him suspended if the event in question happened post-draft. A Bradshaw suspension could be all Jacobs needs to claim the starters spot once and for all so it would behoove you to keep an eye on the situation.

18. Jamal Lewis (CLE) - Even though the Browns offense and more importantly offensive line have largely remained the same, many are still doubting Lewis can repeat his 2007 success. Without a suitable backup or a threat to steal some of his goal line carries, the only thing that could stop Lewis from continuing upon last year’s success is either injury or age. Lewis is approaching 30 and the enormous amount of carries he has on his odometer has to take it’s toll at some point. It’s hard to imagine his decline happening so quickly and suddenly without some type of injury, though.

17. Lawrence Maroney (N.E.) - Being the RB on one of the best passing games of all time doesn’t leave you in a position to get tons of carries. Nor does it help having a coach who likes to spell his backfield every two downs or so. Entering his 3rd season and with Kevin Faulk likely to see a decreased role, Maroney is a prime candidate to breakout this year. Unfortunately, “breaking out” for a running back on the Patriots offense means about 1,100 yards and 8 TD’s. On the bright side, that’s still better than Rudi Johnson who you targeted last year.

16. Reggie Bush (N.O.) - Reggie Bush is a classic case of too much hype due to college performance. Although Bush has proven he is a worthy complimentary rusher and a skilled receiving back, the Barry Sanders like expectations have left many disappointed after his first two seasons in the league. With his rushing skills likely to improve over time, it may just take him a few more years until he’s a suitable starter. Even in his current complimentary situation, his rushing yards and receiving yards combined equal enough points to make him a worthy target in your draft. Not to mention his ceiling would have him turning into a Brian Westbrook type back. Not bad. I we think we can finally chill out with comparing Hall of Fame players to rookies that are being drafted, though. No?

15. Earnest Graham (T.B.) - Graham proved to be one of the most valuable, out-of-the-blue waiver wire pickups of the 2008 season. The only option after injuries to Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman, Graham nearly rumbled himself to 1,000 yards, finishing instead with 898 and 10TD’s. With Warrick Dunn’s return to Tampa, Graham will likely lose some carries, but he can easily claim the starting spot if he can prove that last year wasn’t a fluke. 175 fantasy points if you can guess correctly!

14. Ronnie Brown (MIA) - Although his recovery from an ACL tear is a major concern, Brown benefits from sustaining the injury early in the season last year as well as returning to a vastly improved Dolphins offense. With Ricky Williams back in town, he likely won’t need to carry all of the load immediately as long as Williams stays away from the reefer. Brown is still a risky pick, but as 602 yards and 7 TD’s in 7 games last year showed, not one without a potential hefty reward.

13. Willis McGahee (BAL) - Even though the Ravens have major question marks on offense, the rushing game is not one of them. A top notch rusher and capable receiver, McGahee should top 300 carries for the first time since 2005 due to the sub-par and inexperienced options at quarterback. Although his new and improved ACL will be tested under such a workload, if he can handle the strain and put up his usual numbers than his fantasy numbers will be just fine. Even if he is in on one of the worst offensive units in the game.

12. Larry Johnson (K.C.) - A slow start, poor passing game and foot injury all contributed to Johnson’s worst season as a starter last year. Even if he can avoid the slow start and injuries this year, the Chiefs still have no passing attack and the shoddy offensive line remains the same. Although he‘ll get his carries, he will also be the focal point of every defense the team plays. Good thing we’ve seen what he can do before so you can educated decision on whether or not to take the gamble. The upside is high, although the downside is low. Take your pick.

11. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) - Even with Fred Taylor still going strong, Jones-Drew should slowly but surely take over primary back duties. With a rushing average of a bit more than 5 yards per carry average in his first two years, superb hands out of the backfield and game breaking ability, Jones-Drew’s low touches are overshadowed by his supreme upside. Whenever he takes over the reigns in Jacksonville and gets more time on the field, expect his value to skyrocket up the charts. Even if this year is not his year, he still pumps out a solid amount of fantasy points and presents upside that is hard to pass up on.

10. Ryan Grant (G.B.) - Grant won biggest out-of-the-blue honors in 2007 and helped many teams win championships had they had the clarity to pick him. I for one ended up taking Priest Holmes over Grant with my last waiver wire pick up in my keeper league. Suffice to say, I did not make the playoffs and will probably never forgive myself. Grant placed a firm hold on the starter position with his end of the season performances last year and isn’t realistically threatened by anyone as long as he can continue production and stay away from injuries. Therein lies the catch, however. The question is if Grant will be able to continue his break-out year last year and stay away from the injuries that can plague a starting RB. All aren’t huge concerns but worth taking into account should you find yourself about to draft him.

9. Marion Barber (DAL) - Anyone with the nickname “The Barbarian” had to have earned it somewhere down the line and it’s no surprise if you’ve seen Barber run. He is a powerful, agile back who doesn’t stop running until the whistle blows. He has a wreck less abandon for anything but positive yardage and ultimately the end zone. Even with Jerry Jones favorite Felix Jones being plugged into the offense and taking some carries away, Barber will be the goal line back and Barber will get the majority of the carries. You can’t be the best back on one of the best offenses in the league for nothing, you know.

8. Frank Gore (S.F.) - Gore’s 1,102 rushing yards, 436 receiving yards and 6 total TD’s isn’t very impressive at first glance, but take into account that he did it all on the worst offense and the league and you’ve got yourself a better picture. Gore was the only bright spot on an otherwise anemic 49ers offense last year. Having brought in Mike Martz to fix the offense has caused many people to declare Gore a sleeper for next year. Since I still don’t know the correct definition of sleeper, all I will say is that if Martz can turn Alex Smith into a competent QB than Gore has the talent to reap all of the rushing and receiving rewards a Martz system has to offer the starting RB. His rushing total may go down, but his receptions, receiving yards and total TD’s should all go up. Cha-ching!

7. Marshawn Lynch (BUF) - Lynch is another RB who put up impressive stats on a not-so-impressive offense. In 13 games last year he ran for 1,115 yards and 7 TD’s. With Trent Edwards looking to be everything J.P. Losman was not, Lynch at least has a suitable and blossoming passing game to take some attention away from him. Rumor has it that the Bills will also be utilizing Lynch’s pass catching skills a lot more this year which in layman‘s terms means he‘ll be on the field even more. An injury last year is a small concern as to his dependability, but a year through the gauntlet should have taught him what it takes to be a starter in the NFL.

6. Clinton Portis (DEN) - Portis returned to pre-2006 form last year, finishing in the Top 5 for fantasy points accrued. A new system has turned some people off as to Portis’ 2008 potential, but he is too talented a player not to utilize half of the offensive play calling on. Though he’ll likely see less carries, Portis should still fare just fine, especially considering his pass catching skills. Portis caught 47 balls for 389 yards last year and although he’ll get less carries, he’ll get more receptions. It all evens out. Trust me.

5. Joseph Addai (IND) - Although Addai didn’t get as many yards as the top RB’s last year, he more than compensated with his end zone trips. Addai had 15 total TD’s last year to pair with a solid 1,072 rushing yards and 364 reception yards. He’s the top back on one of the most prolific offenses in the game, but his total upside keeps him out of the upper-echelon. If your looking for a safe pick who will have plenty of opportunities to score TD’s than Addai is your guy. Although enjoying Peyton Manning’s commercials also helps.

4. Stephen Jackson (STL) - In only twelve games and behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game, Jackson still managed to amass just over 1,000 yards and tack on 6 total TD’s. With a healthy offensive line and a more run-heavy offense, Jackson could very well return to pre-2007 form, where he was in the conversation for top running back overall. He gives you rushing yards, he gives you reception yards and he scores TD’s. Injuries are a problem due to last year, but should his offensive line remain healthy, he should cruise through the season with little to no problems.

3. Adrian Peterson (MIN) - As fantastic as Peterson was last year and as much hype as he caused, I still find it hard to rank a back who’s had one fantastic year over a back who’s had them for his entire seven-year career. Peterson very well could prove that he’s the top running back in the game this year, however his quarterback is questionable and his backup running back proved he could do a suitable job if given spell-carries. If A.P. can have an equally impressive Year 2, he’ll not only win over just me, he’ll likely win over the entire game of professional football. We’ll be watching!

2. LaDainian Tomlinson (S.D.) - Tomlinson has basically been a machine until he showed us his mortality with an MCL injury in the playoffs. He has been the face of fantasy football since he stormed upon the league in 2001 and with good reason: He can run, he can catch, he can score and if you haven’t heard -- he’s awfully classy! With the birthday cake reading 29 this year, L.T. may finally see the decline we thought impossible for so many years. Even so, he’ll still likely put up top-notch numbers this year and many years down the road. His upside is way too high to not warrant him at least a number 2 ranking.

1. Brian Westbrook (PHI) - After gaining sole control of the Eagles RB spot sometime in 2005, Brian Westbrook has made a steady improvement in his game and more importantly, his fantasy points. The year 2006 saw the biggest jump while Westbrook showed us in 2007 then he can run for more yards as well as improve on his already ridiculous reception numbers. Going into 2008 he is the whole package. He does everything you could want from your featured fantasy running back and he does it while proving his injury critics incorrect. Having played in 15 games in each of the last two seasons, Westbrook is slated for perhaps the finest season of his career in 2008. At age 28, he could very well have his peak season this year. Even if he has peaked and he backpedals a bit, 240 fantasy points isn’t too bad for a RB’s low side is it? Is it? Hello? Is anyone still reading this?

Sunday Morning Quarterback: Second Edition

I know, I know. It's Saturday night, but I'm posting this a little early because I am getting up early tomorrow morning and heading for work for a little while. Therefore, the second edition of "Sunday Morning Quarterback" was posted Saturday night, July 5th.

First off, I would like to say happy late 4th of July to all. Ok, this week's topic is a little different. I was looking for something Football-related earlier today, and so I decided to join an ESPN.com Fantasy league (10-team League), and I just completed the draft a few minutes ago...Despite it being only July 5th. Yes, I was that desperate.

Instead of talking the Brett Favre topic to death, I will just recap the fantasy draft I just completed. Well, I was away for most of the night, and got home just in time to finish off the last five picks. I was awarded the number one pick in the draft, thank god, and the autopick simulator drafted L.T. for me, of course. The bad thing about the autopick simulator is that if you forget to edit your player rankings (like I did), then the simulator will keep on drafting running back after running back.

I know that RB's are the most important players on a fantasy team, but drafting SIX running backs before drafting even one QB is a little outrageous.

So...I tune into the draft at around 10:35 PM ET, and I have three starting RB's (L.T., Willie Parker, and Jamal Lewis), which is a solid trio, by the way. But, the simulator didn't stop there, I had three running backs on the bench as well, two of which were unproven rookies(Matt Forte, and Kevin Smith), and the other has yet to prove he's an elite NFL back (Deuce McAllister).

I did not have a starting QB until the 120th overall pick (round 12), where I picked up Detroit Lions Jon Kitna. While Kitna isn't exactly a QB most would want as their starter, especially on a fantasy team, he does have a great target or two at the WR position, and Detroit certainly is a passing team. But, a weak backfield is working against Kitna, and the Lions. I took a second QB, Jeff Garcia, with 140th pick overall. I am really hoping he has as much success this year as he did last year in Tampa.

Lucky for me, my top two wideouts are strong fantasy receivers. That is, if Torry Holt isn't on the downturn, and Wes Welker gets as much attention from Tom Brady as he did last year.

Take a look at my entire roster, in the draft order (BOLD represents the picks I made myself):

Ladainian Tomlinson, RB- 1st overall

Willie Parker, RB- 20th overall

Jamal Lewis, RB- 21st overall

Torry Holt, WR- 40th overall

Wes Welker, WR- 41st overall

Tony Gonzalez, TE- 60th overall

Matt Forte, RB- 61st overall

Kevin Smith, RB- 80th overall

Tony Scheffler, TE- 81st overall

Vernon Davis, TE- 100th overall

Deuce McAllister, RB- 101st overall

Jon Kitna, QB- 120th overall

Patriots Defense- 121st overall

Jeff Garcia, QB- 140th overall

Stephen Gostkowski, K- 141st overall

Amani Toomer, WR- 160th overall

Be sure to join me next week!

Fantasyland: Top Ten Skill Position Rookies

With football season fast approaching, fantasy magazines and top player lists are popping up everywhere you look. It’s definitely not a waste to rank the likes of the top running backs or wide receivers, since I think most of us have a pretty good grasp on where everyone should fall. Not to mention, there’s so many different ones that it’s like reading the same book, but with a slightly different ending. ‘Hey, look at my rankings! I have Terrell Owens ranked number one!’ Yeah, that’s great. You’re a dumb ass.

Anyway, I figured I’d try and make some atypical fantasy football rankings. So many things go into a successful draft and the more you know about the rookies, sleepers and potential busts, the better your chances of hopefully winning that green. First up: The top ten skill position rookies. This is not a keeper league list, this is based on the amount of points they will likely score this year. It takes into account the amount of playing time they’ll likely see, the talent they are surrounded by and most importantly, how good they are at the game of football.

As always, enjoy and feel free to disagree vehemently in the comments.

10. Matt Ryan, QB, ATL

Matt Ryan, or ‘Matty Ice’ as he was known at B.C. is believed to be the most talented quarterback in the draft class. While I strongly disagree, I’m not even going to get started on Brian Brohm going from being the likely number one pick in 2007 to dropping to the second round in 2008, even though he had a better season on a less talented team. Even so, Brohm is stuck in the quarterback fiasco that is the Green Bay Packers so the fact that Brett Favre might come back (what a shocker!) means he might not even get to play at all this season. Ryan meanwhile has the best chance to start the earliest out of the trifecta of the first three QB’s taken. Although, since he was interception prone in college he will likely push twenty interceptions this year so be wary if your in a negative point per interception league. If you want to take a gamble and don’t like Ryan, Joey Flacco has a shot at starting and will likely put up better stats than Ryan should they play the same amount of games.

9. Devin Thomas, WR, WAS

Out of all twenty six players the Redskins took in the draft, Thomas should have the most impact. Going into the pre-season, he’s the #4 WR and could spend the majority of the season battling Antwaan Randle El for the slot spot. The Redskins QB situation is a bit iffy, but if Jason Campbell can get back on track, or at least somewhat near it than the Redskins have enough weapons on offense to leave Devin Thomas relatively unnoticed. And when your unnoticed, you generally get thrown the ball, which is a good thing if you’re a rookie receiver.

8. Chris Johnson, RB, TEN

LenDale White may have the Titans starting RB job on lock (and with good reason), but Johnson should be a nice compliment to him. If you haven’t noticed, the Titans appear to be content with their severely mediocre receiving corps. There’s no other explanation for why they didn’t take a wide receiver until the fourth round with so many of the top wide outs falling to them so many times. Because of this, expect the Titans to run. A lot. I don’t think I need to tell you that’s a good thing for Chris Johnson but I will anyway. It’s a good thing.

7. Limas Sweed, WR, PIT

The Steelers did the exact opposite of the Titans in the draft: Got what they’re quarterback needed. In Big Ben’s case, it was a big possession receiver. With so many other players capturing the defenses attention, Sweed should have a field day raking in Roethlisberger’s passes. He will also likely be one of Ben’s favorite targets in the red zone as well. Cha-ching! Plus, he has a pretty cool name which is always good.

6. Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR

Word out of Panthers camp is that the staff has never viewed DeAngelo Williams as starter material. While this baffles and pains me to no end (he was one of the five players I kept on my keeper league team -- which was BEFORE the draft, just throwing that out there) the starting running back job is Stewart’s to win. The knock against Williams is that he doesn’t have what it takes to take the punishment that comes with being a starting NFL RB. While he’s had injuries, he was fantastic in college and he posted 5.5 yards on 144 touches last year. Not starter material though, which just confuses the shit out of me. Regardless of how the Williams situation is handled Stewart will get his share of carries including the bulk of the goal line work. For all you new fantasy players out there, touchdowns = :) .

5. Felix Jones, RB, DAL

Jones has landed himself in a similar (and definitely better) situation in Dallas. At Arkansas, Jones was a worthy compliment to the powerful, talented Darren McFadden. In Dallas, Jones finds himself behind Marion ‘The Barbarian’ Barber, who if you can believe it is a powerful, physical runner -- barbaric even! Unlike in Arkansas, Felix’s new offense has talent at receiver and quarterback. It could even be said it is one of the most talented offenses in the entire league. Not a bad spot to be in. Although Jones’ only likely opportunity to score touchdown’s will be to break off some outside of the red zone, he’s still going to get his touches and gain some yards.

4. Kevin Smith, RB, DET

It will be interesting to see how the departure of Mike Martz will effect the Lions offense. If they can manage to put up some similar offensive numbers, Kevin Smith has the opportunity to be what Kevin Jones was not. By that, I mean a competent starting running back. Barring a miraculous, turn around season for the ages out of Tatum Bell, starting running back duties should be turned over to Smith early on (if they haven‘t already with Bell reporting to camp overweight). Smith should make a strong contribution once he gets the butterflies out and should help the Lions attempt to fulfill Jon Kitna’s prediction of fourteen wins this season.

3. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, PIT

Some feel that Mendenhall could be the best back in the draft. I think it’s too tough to say for sure, because I do not have psychic, future reading abilities. Mendenhall should give the Steelers what they’ve been missing since Bettis’ retirement and then some. And by that, I mean a big bruiser who can will himself into the end zone but also athletically break off some long runs. In essence, he’s the very epitimy of what a Steelers running back should be. Although Willie Parker shouldn’t lose the starting job anytime soon, Mendenhall and Parker could turn out to be the best running back committee in the entire NFL.

2. Darren McFadden, RB, OAK

The general consensus was that that McFadden was the best back in the draft. Which isn’t surprising because the label is usually placed on the first RB taken who had great stats his final year in college. Talk about making a crazy prediction! Unfortunately for McFadden, being hailed as the best back to come out of the 2008 Draft meant he landed himself on the suspect Oakland Raiders offense. Although he’s the clear cut starter and should get many carries, the basically-still-a-rookie-QB JaMarcus Russell should make sure that McFadden gets a painful intro to NFL defenses. A trial by eight in the box fire, if you will.

1. Matt Forte, RB, CHI

Matt Forte has garnered major attention the past few weeks after the Bears released perennial under-achiever and Ricky Williams boating buddy, Cedric Benson. The Bears have made it clear that Forte is their starter and he was just offered a lucrative four year contract. Although he’s going to be lining up behind either Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton, the Bears’ defense should give the offense many opportunities to score each game. Basically, as of right now, Forte is looking like he might be the back that has NFL teams and fantasy owners alike face palming because they passed up on him. Draft wisely.