Why You Can Pencil In Ted Ginn Jr. For 70 Catches, 900 Yards And 6 TDs

With all the talk of Brett Favre this and Brett Favre that, the Dolphins sneaky-quick acquisition of Chad Pennington went relatively unnoticed. Can’t you just picture Bill Parcells shaking his head in disbelief that Pennington was basically placed in the teams lap? I sure can.

Now I’m not saying Chad Pennington is going to have some type of comeback year for the ages or anything, but I am saying he’s a perfectly capable QB that was the answer to the receiving corps prayers. Think about it. One of the following QB’s was currently slated to be slinging balls for the offense, and likely to the wrong team. Complete with career stats:

Josh McCown: 609 for 1052 (57.9%), 6582 yards, 35 TD’s, 40 INT’s. He is entering his seventh NFL season.

John Beck: 60 for 107 (56.1%), 559 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT’s. He is entering his second NFL season.

Chad Henne: Has not yet started an NFL game and would have to go through the necessary growing pains expected of rookie QB’s.

Could one of those players ended up having a good 2008? Absolutely. Would you want to put any type of money on that? I doubt it. Now, let’s take a look at the QB the world forgot about, Chad Pennington:

Chad Pennington: 1259 for 1919 (65.6%), 13738 yards, 82 TD’s, 55 INT’s. He is entering his ninth NFL season.

Uh, yeah. I’ll take Pennington, thanks.

Anyway, with that obvious but necessary piece out of the way, let’s take a look at Jerricho Cotchery’s stats the year he played a bit part on offense and wasn’t on the field too much.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2005): 19 receptions, 251 yards, 0 TD’s (12 games played, 1 game started)

Now, we know that Pennington was on the team in 2005, but Cotchery wasn’t given enough playing time to benefit from that. He was also still learning the intricacies of the WR position, with it being only his second year in the league and his first with some good, solid playing time. Let’s take a look at Ted Ginn Juniors stats in his first year in the league:

Ted Ginn Jr.
(2007): 34 receptions, 420 yards, 2 TD’s (16 games played, 9 games started)

It’s easy to see that Ginn had much more of a role in his rookie year than Cotchery had in his first two years in the NFL combined. Because of this, Ginn is likely well-entrenched in the verses of the WR position. Now let’s take a look at Cotchery’s first year with a starting role in the offense, one that formally introduced him to Chad Pennington.

Jerricho Cotchery
(2006): 82 receptions, 961 yards, 6 TD’s (16 games started)

Not bad. A lot of that can be attributed to Cotchery’s talent but couldn’t some of it also be placed on Pennington? Cotchery was targeted 125 times in 2006 and the ball managed to find itself safely in his hands 82 of those times. Pennington may be knocked for his lack of any kind of powerful arm, but the man is accurate. He’s completed nearly two thirds of his throws his entire career. All in all, I think it’s safe to assume that he’s a quality QB.

With Cotchery barely able to build a rapport with Pennington in 2005 due to the small amount of playing time, the two essentially built a connection throughout the 2006 season itself. Cotchery was also the second option for Pennington, with Laveranues Coles easily claiming the title of both WR1 and the QB’s favorite receiver.

Jumping back to the present, Ginn is the clear cut WR1 on a Dolphins offense that’s looking to begin moving forward after some serious off-season patch-up work. What does that mean? It means that Ginn will likely benefit from not only more targets (he had 71 last year), but also from a competent QB who can consistently throw the ball in his general vicinity.

Is it that much of a stretch to think that Ginn could put up similar numbers to what Cotchery churned out in 2006? No. It’s definitely not. The stretch would lie in how much better you think Ginn could do. Cotchery was targeted 125 times as the WR2 but also benefited from having a superb receiver lining up opposite of him in Laveranues Coles. Ginn saw 71 targets last year as a rookie and it was a year in which he didn’t get much playing time until Chris Chambers left before Week 7.

I would say that 125 targets for Ginn is a basement estimate. With reports that Ronnie Brown may have to start the season at a snails pace thanks to his finger injury, the Dolphins are sure to lean on Pennington until Brown returns. No offense to Ricky Williams since I’m sure he’ll contribute somewhat, but I want to see how he looks during an actual game that means something. The guy is 31 years old and not counting last years disappointing six attempt season, hasn’t played a substantial amount of time in the NFL in what’s now approaching three years. If thinking the Dolphins are going to pass a lot makes me crazy then so be it. I don’t want to be sane.

In the interests of being realistic and not allowing the predictions to get out of hand, I say it’s safe to pencil in Ginn for at least 130 targets. Please note the ‘at least’ part of that statement. Out of the 130 balls thrown to him, say 10 get called back by penalties or are nullified for whatever reason. Chad Pennington’s career completion percentage is 65.6% but we’ll give age and a change in living situation the benefit of the doubt here and say he’ll complete 60% of his passes this year. That’s probably the bare minimum. Add in a quick entrance from our friend the calculator and that leaves us with the following projection:

2008 Projection

Ted Ginn Jr: 130 targets, 72 receptions, 900 yards, 6 TD’s

And that is being GENEROUS with the negative outside factors. Barring some type of major injuries to Ginn himself, Pennington or the offensive line, that stat line could very easily be achieved by Ginn unless he’s managed to lose his football talent somehow during the off-season.

Aaaand... scene!

Walker-Sports AFC East Preview

As we all eagerly wait on the upcoming football season, let’s continue our look around the NFL, today we will switch conferences and take a look at the AFC East. There’s a lot going on in this division, but it’s pretty straight forward to guess what the outcome of this conference will be.

New England Patriots: 17-1 pretty damn good unless that one lost came in the biggest game of the year. Everyone knows the story of the Patriots, and you can believe they will use the disappointment at the end of the story as fuel to climb back to the top of the mountain in 08. The Patriots will go to battle with the usual cast of characters. Their offense will have the same quick pace and explosive scoring ability as it did last season. I doubt they will break scoring records like last season, but they will not struggle to get into the endzone. Look for the Pats to change it up the attack plan just a bit this season. They will move Moss around and get him into the slot and let Welker play the outside. While this will cut into Welker’s numbers it will open up more opportunities for Moss. It will be hard for a defense to get a corner and a safety on him when he comes out of the slot where a nickel back or a linebacker would typically be the first line of defense.

On the defensive side the Pats lost some talent in the secondary with the departure of Ashanti Samuel. However, they were very active in free agency and have found very good replacements and in typical Patriots fashion it will cost the franchise a lot less cash. The biggest pickup in the off season has to be drafting Jerod Mayo at linebacker. Mayo will make an instant impact which the Patriots need since their ageing linebacking core was actually the wink link on their defense last season.

The Patriots will be ale to tear through this weak division and once again take home the title. Division Title that is.

New York Jets: The Jets barely fall into this second spot, and it does not mean they will have a successful all around season. The Jets have questions at QB and they have a bunch of new faces on the offensive line. They are some very talented faces and a solid mix of veterans and young guys. The upside is if the line can gel together, the Jets can potentially make a stable offense, and that could be enough.

Two seasons ago the Jets began to put together a solid defense and while they backtracked a little last season, they will look to rebound in 08. Their defense is good enough to keep them in a lot of games this season, especially when you look around the rest of the division.

Buffalo Bills: The Bills could easily be a huge surprise in 2008, especially if Trent Edwards can completely grasp the system and the league. Last year Edwards burst onto the scene and he showed lot of promise and there is no doubt he will build and grow this season. If he can progress, the Bills have the weapons on offense to make some noise. Marshawn Lynch was a stud in the back field and he will only improve now that he has a better understanding of the blocking schemes and the tempo of the game. Lee Evans is a deep threat receiver who had a down year last season due to erratic play at the QB position. If Edwards can settle down and deliver the ball then Evans could feast from the improved play and have a breakout year.

Miami Dolphins: They went out and drafted the cheapest number one draft pick available. But Jake Long should be able to anchor the line for a long time to come. Too bad no one has a clue who will be under center. What the Dolphins do have going for them is Ronnie Brown. He is a tough runner who can get solid yardage on every carry. If Miami can keep him healthy during the season he will help to jump start what was a terrible (say it like Charles Barkley) offense last season.

The one thing Miami has going for them entering next season is the Big Tuna. That’s right Bill Parcells has taken over and he is already making his presence felt. Parcells put Jason Taylor on notice and he has the Dolphins on notice from front office to towel boy. If nothing else, Parcells running the show will insure that everyone puts their best foot forward. He will make the Dolphins raise their level of play unfortunately that level just wont be good enough.

Sunday Morning Quarterback; Overpaid Rookies

I am starting a new series, called...Well, just look at the title "Sunday Morning Quarterback". Yes, we can talk NFL Football even during the offseason. Not much going on in the NFL right now, but training camps open in about a month! Is that exciting or what??

The biggest topic up for debate today is Commissioner Roger Goodell's reaction to overpaid rookies. I brought this up on Armchairgm.com around the time of the 2007 NFL draft. I believe I said something like "Brady Quinn is going to be overpaid, and end up being a draft bust", and this was before he fell down to the 22nd overall pick by the Cleveland Browns.

The topic was brought back up after this year's draft when first overall pick, Jake Long (drafted by Miami) signed a five-year contract worth $57.75 million. He signed the contract on April 22nd, which was BEFORE the draft even took place in New York City. What happens if Long gets in some kind of accident before the draft even takes place?! The Dolphins would be screwed then.

Goodell's reaction to the situation? Well, he started out by saying the pay roll for rookies is 'ridiculous', and then had this to say about it: "There's something wrong about the system, the money should go to people who perform. He doesn't have to play a down in the NFL and he already has his money. Now, with the economics where they are, the consequences if you don't evaluate that player, you can lose a significant amount of money." He then went on to say: "And that money is not going to players that are performing. It's going to a player that never makes it in the NFL. And I think that's ridiculous."

I think every NFL fan out there can agree with Goodell's statement. Rookies obviously shouldn't be paid millions of bucks before they even step foot out on the field, and prove themselves. My apologies to Ryan Leaf, but I'm gonna have to use you as an example. I mean, god knows what could happen. We may very well get another Ryan Leaf. Heck, you could even end up drafting a Tim Couch, Spergon Wynn, or Eric Crouch. Not a single NFL team wants that. So, in order to fix this, just don't give these guys a long-term, big money contract until they prove themselves.

My solution: A rather simple one. Don't sign them to long-term contracts. The problem is that that could cause players to holdout for more money. I guess we should just let Roger work his magic...