I just finished my college football line creation system and for the most part it’s pretty good. It still definitely needs some tinkering, but I think for the most part it’s offered some nice looks into some possible value bets.
Since there is still such a variance with how much the lines differ by (ranging from .5 – 16.5) most of the games settled in between 1 - 6 so I’m marking the ones larger than 6 as a mistake/in need of fine tuning for something and the one’s less than 4 as games that don’t offer too much value (I did 3 but… there was like a thousand games and I just don’t have that much money, I’m afraid). I’m not necessarily saying the odds makers fudged up these particular games either, I’m just saying that perhaps the games line is skewed a bit to get equal betting on either side (obviously).
All of the games that are in between 4 – 6 points from the overall line I’ve starred as possible value bets. We’ll see how it does – again, this is going to need some fine tuning just like my NFL system, but for the most part it should provide a great little tidbit of extra research for everyone… at least that’s what I’m hoping for. I’m very nice like that! I’m either going to hit the sweet spot with this differential, or I’m going to need to pick games with bigger or smaller differences in the two lines for the coming weeks. We’ll see how it does this week, though.
Before we get into some further discussion, let’s take a look at every single game. That’s right, each and every one. Even the circled ones! Woo-hoo! (The games with three stars are this weeks games with the best potential (hopefully) of offering some value. And by value, I mean helping me/us benefit monetarily.
Auburn @ West Virginia ***
My line: -9.5 / -10
Actual line: -3.5
New Mexico @ Air Force
My line: -3 / -3.5
Actual line: -5.5
Boise State @ San Jose State
My line: +15 / +15.5
Actual line: +7
Texas Tech @ Kansas
My line: -2
Actual line: +1.5
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State
My line: -22
Actual line: -23.5
Northwestern @ Indiana
My line: -3.5 / -4
Actual line: +9.5
Minnesota @ Purdue
My line: EV
Actual line: -1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut
My line: +4
Actual line: -2.5
Boston College @ North Carolina ***
My line: -7 / -7.5
Actual line: -2
Illinois @ Wisconsin ***
My line: -2.5
Actual line: +2.5
Wake Forest @ Miami (FL)
My line: +5.5 / +6
Actual line: -3
Central Michigan @ Toledo ***
My line: +9 / +9.5
Actual line: +3.5
Oklahoma @ Kansas State
My line: +7 / +7.5
Actual line: +19
Kentucky @ Florida ***
My line: -27 / -27.5
Actual line: -23
Baylor @ Nebraska
My line: -13
Actual line: -9.5
Louisiana Tech @ Army
My line: +1.5
Actual line: -2
UNLV @ BYU ***
My line: -16.5 / -17
Actual line: -23
Duke @ Vanderbilt
My line: EV
Actual line: -10
Fresno State @ Utah State ***
My line: +13 / +13.5
Actual line: +18.5
Rice @ Tulane
My line: +5
Actual line: -2.5
Oklahoma State @ Texas ***
My line: -7 / -7.5
Actual line: -12
Georgia @ LSU
My line: +7
Actual line: -1.5
South Florida @ Louisville ***
My line: EV
Actual line: +4
Rutgers @ Pittsburgh
My line: -8
Actual line: -9.5
Virginia @ Georgia Tech
My line: -11 / -11.5
Actual line: -12
Virginia Tech @ Florida State ***
My line: EV
Actual line: -5
UCLA @ California ***
My line: -12 / -12.5
Actual line: -17
North Carolina State @ Maryland ***
My line: -15.5
Actual line: -10.5
Michigan State @ Michigan ***
My line: EV
Actual line: +5.5
Kent State @ Miami (OH)
My line: -9.5 / 10
Actual line: -8
Southern Methodist @ Navy
My line: -14 /-14.5
Actual line: -12
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois ***
My line: -3 / -3.5
Actual line: -7
New Mexico State @ Idaho
My line: EV
Actual line: +15
Wyoming @ TCU
My line: -17.5
Actual line: -31
Colorado @ Missouri
My line: -12.5
Actual line: -21
Mississippi @ Arkansas ***
My line: EV
Actual line: +4
Texas A&M @ Iowa State
My line: +6 / +6.5
Actual line: -3
Troy @ North Texas
My line: +7.5
Actual line: +24
Middle Tennessee State @ Mississippi State
My line: -12.5
Actual line: -13.5
Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana Monroe
My line: +4
Actual line: +1
Alabama @ Tennessee
My line: +4
Actual line: +6.5
Penn State @ Ohio State
My line: -14.5
Actual line: +1
Southern Mississippi @ Memphis
My line: +4.5
Actual line: +4
Notre Dame @ Washington ***
My line: +7 / +7.5
Actual line: +11
Colorado State @ San Diego State
My line: +4.5
Actual line: +7.5
Oregon @ Arizona State
My line: EV
Actual line: +3.5
USC @ Arizona
My line: +14
Actual line: +14
Nevada @ Hawaii ***
My line: +6
Actual line: EV
UCF @ Tulsa
My line: -8 / -8.5
Actual line: -21
Zee plays:
West Virginia (-3.5) North Carolina (-2) Wisconsin (+2.5) Central Michigan (-3.5) Florida (-23) UNLV (+23) Utah State (+18.5) Oklahoma State (+12) Louisville (+4) Virginia Tech (+5) UCLA (+17) Maryland (-10.5) Michigan (+5.5) Bowling Green (+7) Arkansas (+4) Washington (+11) Nevada (EV)
Note: Yes, I plan on playing all of those games. Probably for about $5 a game, but still – hopefully I can narrow it down after this test week so I’ll be able to bet more on the games. But that’s going to assume that this whole system works so… that actually brings us to our next point:
IMPORTANT NOTE: In the highly off-chance someone read this and was going, “Wow, this kid did a lot of work – I’m going to put a **** load of money on those picks!” please don’t. While I would recommend doing that with my NFL selections, I still don’t know how this college thing is going to shake out… so here, at least, is a warning for you not to try and bet the house on these – which I don’t know why someone would EVER do, but still… there are some strange, strange, people in this world that we live in.
Any remarks, comments, suggestions, disses ect are welcome as always!
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