NFC South Game of the Year (and a recap of Sunday's games)

I cannot emphasize enough how important tonight's Monday night mtachup is when it comes to the playoff race. Even the casual NFL fan will tell you tonight's game will be a great one. If you are not intrigued by a Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) and Carolina Panthers (9-3) showdown, then you should not be calling yourself a fan of the NFL.

Carolina may have gotten knocked out by Tampa, 27-3, back in their week six matchup, but they have gone 5-1 since then and DeAngelo Williams is having a career year. The great duo of Williams and rookie RB Jonathan Stewart, out of Oregon, has helped Carolina the whole way, but my vote for comeback player of the year (Jake Delhomme) has backed them up well.

On the other side of the field, veteran QB Jeff Garcia has done a fine job keeping the 12th ranked offense together in close games. In fact, four of the Bucs nine wins have been by a touchdown or less, which includes two overtime wins over Chicago (27-24) and Kansas City (30-27). Might I add that all three of their losses have been by four or less points; 20-24 @ NO, 13-16 @ DEN, 9-13 @ Dallas. As you can see, all three of their losses have come on the road (6-0 at home). But, the game tonight happens to be in Carolina, meaning they are on the road (3-3 on road). That last piece of information obviously points towards Carolina, and adds a little pressure to Jon Gruden's Bucs.

The key in this game will be Carolina's seventh ranked rushing attack game against Tampa's fifth ranked run defense. Both teams will be favoring the run (Carolina is 19th run offense while Tampa's rushing attack is 11th). So expect only around 20 pass attempts for both starting QB's, Delhomme and Garcia.

My pick? Tampa is the obvious favorite; won last meeting and has the third ranked defense in the NFL. But I believe John Fox's Carolina Panthers, led by fantasy stud DeAngelo Williams will upset the Bucs and go on to win two of the last three regular season games to clinch the NFC South. Why not? I picked the Panthers to win the division before the seasons started, why give up on them now?

One thing I know for sure, at this point, is that we are witnessing something great. The NFC South has been having one of their best seasons in a pretty long time. Housing the favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award (Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons QB) and home of TWO nine-win teams through 13 weeks. Just last season Tampa Bay won the division easily with nine wins and Atlanta (currently standing at 8-5) was battling for the top pick in the '08 draft (4-12). Their four-win season forced head coach Rick Pettrino to just resign overnight...before the season was even finished.

Prediction: Carolina def. Tampa Bay 35-28. Williams rushes for 130+ yards and 3 TD's.

Morning After Daily "Linkin' Logs" (12/8/08)

Well, the dust has settled and we've learned a few things this weekend:

• The college football "regular season" has come to an end leaving Oklahoma and Florida left as National Title Game entrants. This game has the looks of a dandy, but I think Florida is so superior that this one will, again, be over around the 3rd quarter.
• The Fiesta Bowl, pitting the 3rd potential NTG entrant, Texas against Big 10 also ran Ohio State has all the makings of a crap-fest. OSU has no business in a BCS bowl after losing to both USC and Penn State and has been a BCS joke as of late. I don't see Texas winning by less than 10.
• The Sugar Bowl does look better though. While I'm slightly unfamiliar with how the BCS system works, its ashame they couldn't put 'Bama againt Texas in what could have essentially been a 3rd place game. Alas, Alabama will be facing Utah in the annual, "We belong here!" game. I just don't see Utah hanging with a tough 'Bama squad
• The Orange Bowl sorta represents why the BCS is kind of lame. Because both the relatively mediocre ACC and Big East are BCS conferences, they each get at least one entrant. At least they managed to contain the crapfest to just this one game. It should still be a good game with Cincy finishing on top.
• And another that could be a dandy is the Rose Bowl. While it doesn't have the glam of the National Title Game, this bowl looks second best to be given that OSU and Utah make the other two decent bowls look a little sluggish. PSU is a team with real moxy, but USC has all the swagger and talent in the world. This one could be good and it pains me to say, Pete Carroll and his Trojans will close out the season with a win and a National Title Game gripe...

Meanwhile, in the world of professional football:

• The Eagles punished the Giants, defeating them 20-14. Those proving the paradigm of the division that any one team can beat any other on any given Sunday. Brian Westbrook strung together 130+ rushing yards, 70+ receiving yards and a pair of TDs to keep the Eagles hopes alive
• The Green Bay Packers have officially emploded and with a 24-21 stunning loss to the Texans. Don't blame Aaron Rodgers here, but with the Vikings 3 game lead (by virtue of their win over the Lions), they have all but no shot at making it in.
• Fortunately for Packers fans; a Jets loss, coupled with Pats escaping victory in Seattle and a Miami victory over the Canadian National team, has created a 3-way AFC East clusterfuck. Even after asshole Collinsworth declared them the AFC Champions (the Jets that is).
  
• The Ravens downed the 'Skins and all but ended their playoff hopes with the NFC South appearing primed to steal 1 spot and a probable second.
• And in typical Tony Romo fashion, the Dallas Cowboys lost a choker to the Steelers in the final quarter. While not a season-ender like the Redskins loss, this certainly forces dallas to make a run in the next 3 games to get in. And it won't be easy because they face the Giants and Ravens at home before traveling to Philadelphia for what could be a potential playoff play-in game.
  

Just a quick note about the MMBBQ today. It's going to be put up later this evening. I was concerned the links wouldn't make it up today, but they did (lunch hour!). I'll do my best to get my Petey rant up before day's end and sooner rather than later.

• A flury of baseball activity: With the winter meetings in vegas in full swing; The Reds traded pitcher Homer Bailey to the White Sox for Adam Dunn replacement Jermaine Dye, The Tigers acquired the Rangers' catcher Gerald Laird, The Yankees are in discussions with Mark Teixeira, Rafael Furcal rejected the A's, The Mets are talking with Frankie Rodriguez, And uppah-dehk-Tek has turned down the Red Sox Arbitration offer.
• AA has the update on the "On-Air Dong" seen on Fox last night.
• Randy Wolf - MLB Whore.
• PFT has the info on Jerruh Jones calling out Marion Barber. Barber missed yesterday's game with a broken toe, to which Jones said (directly from PFT): "He can play with that injured toe. He can play with the soreness and a combination of those things. I see nothing that led us to believe he couldn’t.”
• Again, PFT lets us known that the speculating for the Flex schedules the Sunday before Christmas has begun.
• DCProSportsBlog has begun the petition for actual Football minds to make decisions in the Redskins front office. Specifically, they want some drafting for the lines. Makes sense to me, but I have to say, their fans still suck ass.
• And finally, 10 fascinating facts about the NFL you probably didn't know...and will waste time reading.
  

DSRTSV - 12/7/08

It appears to be imminent. With Manny Pacquiao's defeat (soundly) of Oscar De La Hoya last night, he appears to be on a collision course with The one, Ricky Hatton.

This time, Pacman will be the favorite, but it should be a match for the ages:

So get muthafuckin' ready:

Flacco or Ryan?: The Great ROY Debate!

What do Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan have in common? Many things actually.

Both of these 23 year old rookie QB's have turned their respective NFL teams around in just 12 games this season. Both these guys are rather large, Ryan stands at 6 foot 4 inches, Flacco at 6 foot 6 inches. Both of these guys look like veteran QB's, similar to Brett Favre of the Jets and Kurt Warner of the Cardinals (only difference is neither are quite to the level of HOF status, just yet).

What's even scarier is that the two rookie signal-callers have nearly identical numbers. Both Flacco's Baltimore Ravens and Ryan's Atlanta Falcons currently stand at 8-4 and are in the heart of the wild card race. Go right ahead and take a gander at the numbers

Joe Flacco, BAL, QB- 12 games, 202 for 331 (61%), 2,276 passing yards, 12 TD passes, 9 INT's, 23 sacks, 82.3 QB Rating

Matt Ryan, ATL, QB- 12 games, 203 for 333 (61%), 2,625 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 6 INT's, 13 sacks, 91.2 QB Rating

As you can see, the numbers are pretty similar. But, Ryan gets the edge. Ryan has attempted two more passes than Flacco, yet he has nearly 350 more passing yards than his opponent, Flacco. The QB rating is a great way to measure a QB's production, and Ryan's, thanks to his 13 TD passes and just 13 sacks, is nearly 10 points highers than Flacco's (QB rating). Both Baltimore and Atlanta have pretty balanced attacks when it comes to offense. But, Flacco has more support behind him thanks to Baltimore's stingy defense.

Led by veteran LB Ray Lewis and all-pro safety Ed Reed, Baltimore reps the second best total defense in the NFL right now, allowing just 253.3 yards per game. Against the run, Baltimore is one of only four teams yet to allow over 1,000 rushing yards on the season (along with Pittsburgh, New York (Jets) and Minnesota). While they are second in the League in passing yards allowed per game, 175.1.

The Falcons defense, on the other hand, cannot say the same thing. But, the the overall 22nd best defense in the League of 32 teams have yet to drag Matt Ryan and the offense, ranked sixth best in the league, down.

As far as offensive support goes, both teams have solid running games. The fumble resistant Willis McGahee heads Baltimore's third ranked rushing team, while former LT backup, Michael Turner, has helped Atlanta's second ranked run game with over 1,200 yards on the ground. Ryan has gotten plenty, and I mean plenty, of production from Pro Bowl bound wide receiver Roddy White, this season. Though White, 69 receptions for 1,085 yards and six TD's this season, may be the only noteworthy wideout on Atlanta's depth chart. Michael Jenkins, Atlanta's #2 WR, has hauled in just 34 passes for 520 yards and three TD's for the third place Falcons. Luckily, for Flacco, Baltimore has more consistency lining up wide for him.

The always reliable veteran Derrick Mason has 800+ receiving yards (projected for 1,081 in '08), and the playmaker Mark Clayton have been great targets for Flacco. A healthy Todd Heap would really help this passing attack out, a lot. But, many have forgotten about the rookie RB Ray Rice, who has done an outstanding job running routes (31 receptions for 264 yards, 8.5 YPC) for Flacco.

Rookie of the Year pick??

It has to be Ryan at this point in the season. People thought Atlanta had no chance at all this season. Yes, I know that many people, outside of Baltimore, thought the same thing about Baltimore. But there was certainly a lot more confidence coming from Baltimore's fans, and as of this weekend, Baltimore has performed up to all the hype. But Ryan's numbers are better with less support than what Flacco has gotten in Baltimore.

Other Potential ROY winners:

Matt Forte, RB, CHI- 1,012 yards, 6 TD (4.1 YPC)

Chris Johnson, RB, TEN- 958 yards, 7 TD (4.7 YPC)

My vote for ROY is going to Matt Ryan, Quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons (even though I really don't even have a say in the voting!). Oh well...

DSRTSV - 12/6/08

As promised, here's the Kevin Garnett - Aptly named "Big Baby" Davis confrontation. It's not really that big of a deal except that...well...Big Baby cries.

Hopefully this video will stay up for a while, but it took me a few searches to find one the NBA hadn't taken down already...fuckin' facists.

Surprise Saturday Daily "Linkin' Logs" (12/6/08)

Just a quick little Saturday DLL. I don't have much time and I'm going to be MIA most of the day, but I'll try to give you my opinion of the numerous conference title games today.

• AGM's Mbuterba discusses the "rivalry" between the Ravens and Redskins.
• Antonio Pierce met with NYC officials regarding the Burress incident. As much as Burress has become an issue, I believe that Pierce might be bigger, given his roll on the team (and irreplaceability) and importantance during the playoffs.
• Speaking of Pierce and the Giants, it seems Brian Westbrook will be available for the Eagles this weekend. Its probably fair to say, if Westbrook doesn't play, the Eagles are dunzo.
• We at BNB would like to wish the best to newly retired Greg Maddux. The Wizard is set to annouce his retirement Monday.
• Orenthal James Simspon received roughly 9 to 15 years in jail for his robbery almost two years ago. The story is really about his plea; in which he claims he's "really sorry" and "didn't mean to." Right.
  
• And finally, If you didn't see it last night, Kevin Garnett gave reserve forward Glen "Big Baby" Davis a little "business" during the huddle. Can't blame Garnett here, Davis and the reserves need to keep their head in the game. It gets better, see our DSRTSV!
  

DSRTSV! 12/5/08

Here's a nice little hockey Daily Somehow Related to Sports Video for ya. Earlier this week, Flyers forward Scott Hartnell tried to stop Tampa Bay's Ryan Malone from scoring...by tossing a glove at him...

Needless to say, it didn't work:

Out-Drafting Bonanza Part 4 - The New England Patriots and Bill Belichick

Welcome to part 4 of the Out-Drafting Bonanza. Today's team is the Bill Belichick lead New England Patriots. For all cheating and video taping allegations, they certainly have given off the aura of being the Gold Standard for drafting. The team is considered a model franchise and the New England fans seem to turn a blind eye to how the team is run, as long as it produces winning results (so far so good). So, let's wind another one our and remember, the goal of this exercise is to compare a few different "successful" (and one really unsuccessful) NFL regimes and discover who's good, who's bad and where the hell we'll put Andy Reid.

In case you don't remember, here's a look at our Scoring System again.

And here's the regimes we'll be looking at:

• Philadelphia Eagles (Andy Reid)
• Detroit Lions (Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli...all under Matt Millen and we'll use this is the baseline/epitome of crap)
• Seattle Seahawks (Mike Holmgren/Tim Ruskell)
• New England Patriots (Bill Belichick)
• Jacksonville Jaguars (Jack Del Rio)
• Dallas Cowboys (Jerry Jones err Wade Phillips, though we'll be counting the Parcells years because of how involved Jones was regardless)
• Denver Broncos (Mike Shanahan)
• Chicago Bears (Lovie Smith)
• San Diego Charges (Norv Turner...but all the A.J. Smith era)

Let's not tie up any more of your time. Let's get to the Belichickian Era Drafts:

Year	Round	Name	Score (1-5)	Bonus	Note
2002	1	Daniel Graham	3	0	Graham was an adequate starter for the Pats. Not as special as they believed he would be
	2	Deion Branch	3	0	Again, Branch was a capable starter and SB MVP. He got it done when needed, but wasn't special
	3	Traded to move up and pick Graham	1	0	A third round pick for Graham? Ouch
	4	Rohan Davey/ Jarvis Green	2	0	Davey was a total flop and Green is a decent rotation DL
	5	Traded to move up and pick Green	1	0	Can't say trading up to get a reserve DL was worth it in hindsight
	6	Traded for future pick	0	0	?? - The Pats traded a lot and it was almost impossible to track all of them
	7	Antoine Womack/ David Givens	2	1	Womack (0) never made the team but Givens (3) was a fine starter while with the Pats

This draft really was mixed. Belichick found three adequate to good starters, but nothing special. Graham, Givens and Branch are/were good players in New England who did help produce a few Super Bowls, so its hard to argue with the results, but no studs really were taken.

2002 Score: 13 Points. First Round Hit Total: 1/1. Quality Players Selected (total): 0/6

Year	Round	Name	Score (1-5)	Bonus	Note
2003	1	Ty Warren	4	0	Warren is a fine leader on defense and a stud DT
	2	Eugene Wilson/ Bethel Johnson	2	0	Wilson was a decent safety who worked the Pats system while Johnson had speed, but only showed flashes and his lack of work ethic ended his career
	3	Traded to move up and pick Wilson	1	0	Can't say trading up for Wilson was awful, but wasn't worth it
	4	Dan Klecko/ Asante Samuel	4	4	Klecko (3+1) was a fine DT and great reserve while Samuel was an all-pro (5+3)
	5	Dan Koppen	4	2	Koppen is a pro-bowl center on a Super Bowl team
	6	Kliff Kingsbury	0	0	Another miserable backup QB, never made the team's 53
	7	Spencer Nead/ Tully Banta-Cain/ Ethan Kelley	1	0	Nead never made the squad, Banta-Cain was a decent reserve/role player and Kelley played one game as a Pat

Talk about a marquee draft. Belichick scored higher in the 4th round than the Lions did in the entire 2004 draft. Five of his first 6 picks were hits of at least starters and he even found a decent backup (Banta-Cain) in the 7th...which you'll note is a trend with BB, he does find relative Diamonds in the rough. Its not always Brady, but he finds contributors.

2003 Score: 22 Points. First Round Hit Total: 2/2. Quality Players Selected (total): 2/16

Year	Round	Name	Score (1-5)	Bonus	Note
2004	1	Vince Wilfork/ Ben Watson	4	0	Wilfork (5) is a stud DT while Watson (3) is a solid starter
	2	Marquise Hill	1	-1	Hard to fault the Pats here, but Hill was a backup until his death in 2007
	3	Guss Scott	1	0	Scott was a special teamer for 1 season with the Pats
	4	Dexter Reid/ Cedric Cobbs	1	0	Both were reserves/special teamers
	5	P.K. Sam	0	0	Between legal issues and stupidity, Sam never suited up but did collect a Super Bowl Ring
	6	Traded for Jamil Soriano	0	0	Never played as a Pat but if you google his name, you'll see him on facebook
	7	Christian Morton	0	0	Practice squadee who never suited up

This was clearly his worst draft. Marquise Hill and Guss Scott aren't even recognizable names, but the on thing Belichick didn't screw up was the first round, where he found a stud Defensive lineman in Vince Wilfork and a nice starter in Ben Watson.

2004 Score: 6 Points. First Round Hit Total: 4/4. Quality Players Selected (total): 4/24

Year	Round	Name	Score (1-5)	Bonus	Note
2005	1	Logan Mankins	4	0	Mankins is a probowler and 2nd team all-pro, nice late round pick
	2	Traded for picks to get Hobbs, Thomas (06) and Mincey (06) picks	2	0	Hobbs as a 2nd still isn't a bad pick but the package still didn't work out by 06
	3	Ellis Hobbs/ Nick Kaczur	3	0	Hobbs (3) is a nice starter while Kaczur, regardless of legal trouble has been an effective starter at tackle
	4	James Sanders	3	1	Sanders has adequately replaced Wilson
	5	Ryan Claridge	1	0	Claridge spent 1 year as a special teamer and was released
	6	Traded for Stevenson pick (06)	0	0	Ouch
	7	Matt Cassel/ Andy Stokes	2	1	Stokes (0) never made the 53 man team but was Mr Irrelevant, and Cassel (3) has filled in very well for Tom Brady.

Again, Belichick didn't miss on his first four picks, finding a pro-bowl lineman and three starter to decent backup players. Then in the 7th round he found current starting Quarterback Matt Cassel. I have a feeling I might get some flack for calling Cassel a three, but while he's played well, he's a backup QB on that team. A good one, but a backup.

2005 Score: 17 Points. First Round Hit Total: 5/5. Quality Players Selected (total): 5/31

Year	Round	Name	Score (1-5)	Bonus	Note
2006	1	Laurence Maroney	3	0	He's a starter, but injuryprone
	2	Chad Jackson	1	-1	13 career catches and injury prone
	3	David Thomas	2	0	Thomas is a decent blocker and adequate backup
	4	Garrett Mills/ Stephen Gostkowski	2	1	Mills never played a down as a Pat, while Gostkowski is a adequate kicker
	5	Ryan O'Callaghan	2	0	O'Callaghan is currently a career backup but could become a decent starter
	6	Jeremy Mincey/ Dan Stevenson/ Le Kevin Smith	0	0	Mincey & Stevenson never made the 53 man team, while Smith has seen little time
	7	Willie Andrews	1	0	Decent special teamer

Again, Belichick hit on the first round. While he didn't find much gold (the jury's still out on Maroney), he did find adequate players to form the high powered team for 2007. There was the Jackson bust but he was only one of two negative scorers for Belichick. The proof is in the pudding here but off the top of my head I see five players here who have contributed to successful Patriot squads (Andrews, Gostkowski, Thomas, Maroney and O'Callaghan).

2006 Score: 11 Points. First Round Hit Total: 6/6. Quality Players Selected (total): 5/41

So its reasonable to believe the Belichick drafts were a bit overrated. On the negative side, Belichick found a lot of 2s and 3s and wasn't afraid to make some 0s and cut losses (almost all the 1s were cut quickly too and none proved to be any good regardless). His positive was his ability (again) to find a lot of 2s and 3s which played crucial roles on teams that won Super Bowls. Moreover, he never missed on a first round pick (the weakest being Maroney, Watkins or Graham, though each still started a few games).

Final Scores:

• The Philadelphia Eagles and Andy Reid/Tom Heckert: 76. First round % (3 or better): 80%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 15%
  
• The Detroit Lions and Steve Mariucci/Dick Jauron/Rod Marinelli: 47. First round % (3 or better): 40%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 5%
• The Seattle Seahawks and Mike Holmgren/Tim Ruskell: 69. First round % (3 or better): 60%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 10%
• The New England Patriots and Bill Belichick: 69. First round % (3 or better): 100%. Quality Players Selected (4 or better): 12%
  

Note: 14.28% represents 1 pick out of 7 (per draft) is a quality player

Questions, concerns, comments, errors, Omissions? Please leave in the comments for send to Justin@badnewsbloggers.com