NFC West Week 2 Preview

Week 1: 3-0

Season: 3-0


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks

Seattle swept the season series from the Niners last year by a combined score of 47-3, but that was last year. Despite losing quarterback Alex Smith for the season with a torn rotator cuff, the news is even worse for the Seahawks. Down to one healthy, experienced wide receiver heading into week one, the Hawks lost Nate Burleson on the opening drive against Buffalo with a torn ACL in his left knee. The receiving situation is so desperate, the Hawks are considering starting backup quarterback Seneca Wallace at split end. With two second year WR in line to start, and a rookie tight end as well, QB Matt Hasselbeck will need to be on his game for the Hawks to prevail.

On the other side of the ball, Niners RB Frank Gore averages more than six yards per carry during his career against Seattle, with QB J.T. O'Sullivan again being asked to manage the clock and to avoid turnovers if at all possible.
Prediction: The Hawks injuries on offense are just too much to overcome, and Hasselbeck can't do it all himself, especially considering he isn't at 100% himself. If O'Sullivan can manage to avoid multiple turnovers, and if Gore can match his career averages against Seattle, I can't see them winning.

Prediction: 49ers, 17-13.

New York Giants @ St. Louis Rams

The Rams suffered a big loss on offense last week, WR Drew Bennett will miss at least a month with a broken foot. RB Steven Jackson should be in better shape than last week, although he is still not 100% after missing training camp and the pre-season following a hold-out. The Rams offensive line is its weakest link, the Giants should have little trouble pressuring QB Marc Bulger, putting even more pressure on Jackson.

The Giants offensive line, on the other hand, is a strength, they should have no trouble driving the Rams DLine off the ball, opening large holes for the Giants backs. QB Eli Manning should be aware of a potential mismatch between 6'6" Plaxico Burress and 5'9" Rams cornerback Tye Hill.

Prediction: Giants big, 38-13.

Miami @ Arizona

Here's a stat for you, in the third quarter of last week's opener at San Francisco, the Cardinals time of possession in the third quarter was 13:17. After a shaky first half which ended in a 10 all tie, QB Kurt Warner settled in and executed Coach Ken Whisenhunt 's short pass offense to perfection. In the first half, Anquan Boldin had zero catches, Larry Fitzgerald had seven. In the second half, after a 49ers adjustment, Boldin caught eight balls, with Fitzgerald grabbing three. Expect more of the same against Miami, as their secondary lacks a dominant, shutdown cover guy, which should result in Boldin and Fitzgerald once again approaching double digit catches apiece.

Falling behind early is what the Dolphins would like to avoid, as they are a run dominant team, led by Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown. Last week against the Jets, they combined for 23 carries, the Dolphs would like to see them approach forty combined carries.

Prediction: The Cardinals, behind the ever-confident Kurt Warner and the unstoppable duo of Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald win comfortably, 27-10.

NFC West Week 1 Preview and Predictions

Published simultaneously at www.armchairgm.com

Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills
The key to this game is the Seattle injury situation. Wide receiver Bobby Engram is out, with Deion Branch listed as doubtful, although he has said he will play. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has a back injury, which limited him to just two series of plays in the pre-season. The Hawks have a bevy of talented, albeit inexperienced receivers in Jordan Kent, Courtney Taylor and Logan Payne, each of whom should see significant reps playing opposite veteran Nate Burleson. The lack of playing time for Hasselbeck prevented him from working with the youngsters, which will have an effect on the Hawks passing game. The Bills, with quarterback Trent Edwards listed as 100% despite missing the final two preseason games with a bruised thigh, will have to work hard behind a patchwork offensive line which struggled during the preseason, a fact emphasized by the continued holdout of weakside tackle Jason Peters. Look for RB Marshawn Lynch to carry the ball at least 30 times. The first month or so should be the test for Seattle. If they can reach their Week 4 bye week no worse than 2-1, then they should control the division throughout. If the injuries prove too much to handle, then their season likely could be over before the break.
Prediction: Behind the offensive scheme enacted by new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert, the Bills control the clock with short passes and a 33 carry, 130 yard performance from Marshawn Lynch and squeak out a 16-13 win.
St. Louis Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Rams start the season behind the eight ball, as RB Steven Jackson missed the entire pre-season due to an ill-advised holdout. Tackle Orlando Pace returns after missing all but two series in 2007 due to injury, quarterback Marc Bulger will feel less pressure, but how much will he miss Isaac Bruce? The Rams defense allowed more than 115 yards per game on the ground, a point not lost on RB Brian Westbrook. Joined in the backfield by short yardage specialist FB Tony Hunt, the Eagles should have little trouble controlling the line of scrimmage. With WR Kevin Curtis out, QB Donovan McNabb will rely on shorter passes in an attempt to keep the defense honest against Westbrook.
Prediction: Behind the running of Westbrook and Hunt, and with the Eagles linebackers blitzing the Rams inexperienced offensive line at will, Philadelphia dominates from the opening kickoff and wins convincingly, 36-20.
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Save their inability to beat San Francisco, the Cardinals would have reached the postseason the past two years. This is the third consecutive season the Cardinals have opened in San Francisco and are looking for their first win. Not surprisingly, Kurt Warner won the QB battle with Matt Leinart in the pre-season, and despite not playing well in San Francisco throughout his career, looks to get the Cards off to a 1-0 start. Warner isn't as mobile as Leinart, and has had a career long battle with fumbles, so the offensive line will need to hold onto their blocks a fraction longer to give Warner the time he needs. Fifth round pick Tim Hightower had a great camp and should see quite a bit of playing time spelling Edgerrin James and as another pass option out of the backfield. No report on the Cardinals would be complete without mentioning arguably the top WR duo in the league in Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald. San Francisco shocked the world when he named journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan his starting quarterback. New offensive coordinator Mike Martz, the offensive genius behind the Warner led offensive machine in St. Louis, has put in place a benign game plan for O'Sullivan, one designed to control the clock and avoid turnovers. The key to its success is the durability of RB Frank Gore, who not only is the focal point of the running game, but a factor in the passing game as well. WR Isaac Bruce followed Martz to the 49ers and brings with him his 942 career receptions, it remains to be seen how much he impacts a short, ball control offense.
Prediction: It isn't often you hear a Week 1 matchup being a "must win", but that's exactly the case for the Cardinals. With division rival Seattle struggling with injuries, it's imperative the Cardinals start strong and get themselves a cushion heading into the middle, and most difficult, part of their schedule. With a relaxed Warner leading the way, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald both reach the 100 mark in receiving yards, with Edgerrin James doing so on the ground. Cards win surprisingly easy, 34-10.

KD's NFC West Preview

Published also at www.armchairgm.com

As the 2008 NFL season dawns, the fortunes of the NFC West reside where they have been in recent seasons...the division sucks. The NFL version of baseball's National League Western Division, often referred to as the "NL Worst", the NFC West is home to arguably the two worst teams in the NFL, and a team which has made the postseason in a non-strike year just once since 1975. And even the division's best team, the four time defending champion Seattle Seahawks enter the season with more questions than answers, starting with the health of All-Pro quarterback Matt Hasselbeck.
Hasselbeck is expected to start the season opener despite back issues which go back to last year, at least. Another question is who is Hasselbeck going to throw to? With D.J. Hackett gone and Bobby Engram and Deion Branch injured, the most experienced receiver on the roster is Nate Burleson. The Hawks picked up a couple of second tier running backs in an attempt to re-start the running game following the departure of Shawn Alexander, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett. The signing of left guard Mike Wahle and the drafting of tight end John Carlson should offer Hasselbeck a bit more blind side protection, which is his "back" side in the pocket. Courtney Taylor will likely see most of the opposite side snaps in place of Branch, although Branch declared himself ready to play this week on Wednesday. Rookies Jordan Kent and Logan Payne will play in the Hawks multi-wide set, with RB Maurice Morris the short yardage back. The Hawks are also thin defensively, especially in the secondary, where they will start a second year pro and a rookie. If Hasselbeck struggles with his back, it will be imperative backup QB Seneca Wallace stays within Paul Holmgren's game plan, turnovers and ineffectiveness will have the defense on the field more than anyone would like. The Hawks did catch a big schedule break, after their season opener in Buffalo, two home games follow, against the Rams and 49ers, then the bye week in Week 4. If the Hawks can get to the bye with no further injury problems and a record no worse than 2-1, they could be looking at their fifth consecutive division title and sixth playoff spot in a row.
The St. Louis Rams are coming off a 3-13 season which prompted changes on Scott Linehan's coaching staff. New offensive coordinator Al Saunders is joined by new QB coach Terry Shea and RB coach Art Valero. Linehan has turned over the offense to Saunders, with the hope their combined NFL experience can turn around the Rams often inept offense. The Rams problems last year can point to both lines. All-Pro OL Orlando Pace was lost for the season in Week 1, while the Rams DLine accounted for the fewest sacks in the NFL. The return to form of Pace and injured defensive end Leonard Little will go far in once again in stabilizing the Rams running game and pass rush.
Quarterback Marc Bulger follows along in the same vein as his predecessors in St. Louis, Trent Green and Kurt Warner. What they lacked in mobility they made up with pocket awareness and an uncanny ability to wait til the last second before executing the play. Problem is, for a "timing" type QB to be successful, he needs protection, and he needs another threat around him. Pace and his OLine buddies will need to have Bulger's back alot more this year, and will also need to not only open, but keep open, holes for superstar RB Steven Jackson. The Rams, to some, surprisingly released Isaac Bruce, leaving off-season pickup Keenan Burton and rookie Donnie Avery to run alongside Torry Holt. While both players, especially Burton, bring much needed speed to the Rams offense, one must remember they are both still young and also learning a much more complicated offensive system, which the Rams staff understands will require patience. The Rams dominating linebacking corps, led by Will Witherspoon and Quinton Culbertson will be joined by Chris Draft in what is hoped to remain one of the top run defenses in the league.
Fresh off what he calls "the best pre-season of my career", Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner enters the season with his rear view mirror covered. No more looking over his shoulder at the ever shrinking shadow of Matt Leinart. The only thing that can knock Warner from his starter's role is an injury, no longer will the Cards QB situation revolve like the stage at Phoenix' Celebrity Theatre. Plagued by fumbleitis his whole career, Warner will need to keep the turnovers to a manageable level, with the talent of his receiving corps and the still productive Edgerrin James in the backfield, the Cardinals should rack up the points this season. Backup running back Tim Hightower, a legit breakaway threat, had a tremendous camp and should average a dozen or so touches per game. Tight end Ben Patrick is a solid route runner with good hands and an excellent on the run blocker. WR Anquan Boldin caused a minor flap in camp over his contract situation has told the Cardinals he will give 100% on the field, teams with All-World teammate Larry Fitzgerald, giving the Cards the best one-two WR tandem in football. On the defensive side, the move of Antrelle Rolle to safety, where he will pair with the league's best DB, Adrian Wilson. Rolle, a former cornerback, had problems in tight coverage situations, the freedom the safety position brings should alleviate that concern. Wilson, so dominating he on occasion will line up as a linebacker in certain coverages, is coming off a camp Coach Ken Whisenhunt described as "stunning."
The San Francisco 49ers surprised most everyone by naming journeyman quarterback J. T. Sullivan the opening day starter over Alex Smith. The 49ers must improve on their league worst 145 yards per game passing average in 2007, and have signed former Rams standout WR Isaac Bruce to help in that area. Former Rams head coach and offensive genius Mike Martz is in as the new coach and won't have any trouble designing a new offensive scheme, the problem will be in having the necessary pieces to execute it. RB Frank Gore is a legitimate 2000 yard from scrimmage guy, but despite his ability to find open ground, will find the going tough if O'Sullivan can't bring respect to the passing game. Defensively, cornerbacks Nate Clements and Walt Harris are former All-Pros, with Clements propensity to gamble has led to big plays by the offense. Harris is more of a stay at home kind of guy, yet is always scrambling to cover for Clements, which takes him out of his comfort zone.
With the Rams and 49ers likely not to reach ten wins combined, the Seahawks and Cardinals are left to fight for the division amongst each other. The problem there is they will struggle to win 18 games combined, leaving for a tighter than expected race. The Cardinals end the season against Minnesota, at New England, and home vs. the Hawks, while Seattle's final stretch is at St. Louis, home vs the Jets, and at Arizona. Seattle's first month may go farther in deciding the division however, with so many injuries, a 1-2 or 0-3 start could doom their hopes right off the bat.
I see the division thusly;
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 Seattle Seahawks 8-8 St. Louis Rams 5-11San Francisco 49ers 4-12
The division will be decided in Week 17, with the Cards and Seahawks squaring off in Arizona with identical 8-7 records. The Cards, realizing what was at stake and with a sell-out crowd going nuts in a nationally televised affair, jump on the Hawks early and continue the onslaught with a double digit route.

On The Brink: An NFC West Preview

The NFC West last year was perhaps one of the least exciting divisions to follow in the entire NFL. The only remotely successful team, Seattle, had their ups and downs during the season but generally had the division on lock by the end of Week 4.

There were many reasons for such non-parity.

The Rams were racked by injuries and were tasked with playing with a 'Replacement-esque' offensive line. Marc Bulger was sacked fifty times per game and Stephen Jackson missed much of the season due to injury.

The 49ers, such a trendy sleeper pick these past couple years regressed once again and Alex Smith flirted with having his name thrown in with Ryan Leaf’s. Having the worst offense in the league, combined with a mediocre (at best) defense eventually summed up to a not-so-great year for San Francisco.

Arizona, who showed a bit of promise last year, was still playing with Kurt Warner as their starter thanks to a disappointing and injured Matt Leinart. Although he guided them to an 8-8 record, Warner showed his age and the offense lacked the explosiveness it could have potentially had with Leinart under center.

Going into this year, the hopes are high for each team. The 49ers have brought in Mike Martz to improve their anemic offense. The Rams are going into the season with a healthy Stephen Jackson, Marc Bulger and offensive line – all three things that make their offense scary. Seattle signed Julius Jones in the hopes he could be a big part of a potential committee at RB, although their WR situation at the moment is iffy. Finally, Arizona still has Larry Fitzgerald and Anquin Boldin on their offense and that’s essentially all that matters. Although they are hoping that this is the year that Matt Leinart finally realizes he is in fact a professional quarterback.

However, every team goes into the year with a positive attitude. If they didn’t than it would be scary, unprofessional and a bit pathetic. Thankfully, we the fans can be the realists and sort out who has a shot, who doesn’t and who probably should be the reason the NFL creates a minor league system.

The good thing is that every team in the NFC West is on a relatively equal playing field, save for San Francisco unless they make an extreme turnaround. It really could go a multitude of different ways and the season’s outcome, like every year, will depend upon a variety of factors.


Division prediction:
St. Louis (10-6)
Arizona (8-8)
Seattle (8-8)
San Francisco (6-10)

A healthy St. Louis offense is a potent offense and even though they lost Isaac Bruce to the 49ers, the offense still has the ability to put up huge numbers especially if Stephen Jackson can remain healthy. With little to no pass rush last year, Marc Bulger did everything he could to will the team to a win but to no avail. Still, he looked impressive for a QB who was basically playing in the face of a constant pass rush and the threat of broken ribs.

The secondary should improve with the off-season signing of David Macklin and the defensive line will get an instant upgrade with the arrival of Chris Long. While the Rams defense wasn’t the worst in the league last year, it can use the help and if it can be at least average, the offense will take care of the rest.

The Cardinals proved last year that they are finally to be taken seriously… or at least somewhat seriously. Having gone .500 last year, the only way they can go up is to make the playoffs and breaking even again or anything less would generally be regarded as a disappointment. It all rests on the well-moisturized, hot-tub-loving arm of Matt Leinart (what, is that joke dead yet?).

The defense, like the Rams was mediocre last year but has been improved upon with free agency and the draft. The key to the Cardinals season is going to be whether or not Matt Leinart can step it up and if Edgerrin James can continue to at least be mildly productive. If Leinart gets injured or cannot step into the starting role well, Kurt Warner can only take them so far. He’s performed valiantly up until now but it’s time for Leinart to show what he’s got, if anything.

It came as no surprise when the Seahawks offense declined slightly when Shaun Alexander fell off the map. On a side-note, what exactly happened to Shaun Alexander? One minute he’s breaking the rushing touchdown record and the next minute he’s a free agent and no one wants to sign him. It’s all very weird if you ask me.

The Seahawks fortunately still have Matt Hasselbeck in his prime. Unfortunately, his receiving corps is awfully banged up and mediocre when otherwise. The running back situation is still up in the air with T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris and Julius Jones all competing for playing time. The defense was a tad above average last year and should see rookie Lawrence Jackson from USC make a significant impact.

Lastly, we have the San Francisco 49ers who after the Dolphins were easily the worst team in the NFL last year. The offense was horrible. It was horrendous. It was every possible bad term you could come up with all rolled into one nasty word.

Mike Nolan has brought in offensive guru Mike Martz to try and help turn things around and more importantly, try and kick Alex Smith’s ass into gear. Martz, who is known for his quarterback mentoring looks to turn the 49ers offense around with his extremely complicated yet amazingly effective offensive system.

It may not be the strongest division in football, but the 2008 season should be an interesting one in the NFC West. The Seahawks, who are going for their fifth consecutive division title in 2008 look awfully vulnerable and both the Rams and Cardinals have realistic shots at ending that streak this year. The 49ers are the wild card in the whole thing and while they realistically don’t have much of a chance of taking the division, I wouldn’t put it past them to finally be the sleeper team the year that everyone’s given up on them as a sleeper team. It’s just how the NFL works.

State of the Franchise: The San Francisco 49ers

The Mike Nolan era in San Francisco began in 2005. He being the son of former 49ers head coach Dick Nolan, many in San Francisco were thrilled to see the legacy being passed down before their very eyes.

After an initial 4-12 record, the 49ers would improve to 7-9 in 2006. Going into 2007, the 49ers were a trendy sleeper pick due to the strong way they finished the previous season. However like many trendy sleeper picks, things didn’t quite work out the way everyone thought they would. Surprise, surprise!

After narrowly winning their first two games against the Cardinals and Rams in 2007 the 49ers proceeded to drop their next eight games, effectively ending their season by Week 11. Both the offense and defense fully contributed to the streak, with the defense giving up an average of 24 points per game. The offense, led by an anemic QB Alex Smith didn’t fare much better while he was healthy and when Trent Dilfer took over the reigns things didn’t get much better. The normally impressive Frank Gore was unable to carry the team to any wins since there was practically no passing game at all to speak of. And you couldn’t really blame him.

The season reached a low point on a Week 10 Monday night match up in Seattle. The 49ers put up a laughable 173 total yards in the game and it was generally regarded as one of the worst performances in the history of the franchise. I’m sure the 49ers would have liked to rally around such a loss and turn their season around and at least finish respectably. They did not. A 3-4 record to finish the season set their final record at 5-11 which was a severe disappointment considering all the pre-season hoopla.

Below average defensive play and an inconsistent offense contributed to the poor 2007 season. An injury to starting quarterback Alex Smith would usually be a focal point in excusing such a peformance. Smith however, again failed to live up to the expectations placed on him by the 49er organization. In only seven games Smith threw for 914 yards, 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions with a 48.7% completion percentage.

One highpoint of the 2007 season was QB journeyman Shaun Hill’s impressive debut. A career bench warmer until he got to San Francisco, Hill showed that if given the shot he could be the starting QB for the team. Perennial backups everywhere rejoiced.

Mike Nolan, knowing the offense needed a complete and utter overhaul has brought in Lions castoff and offensive play caller extraordinaire Mike Martz. It is believed that if Alex Smith doesn’t flourish in Martz’s system, than he won’t flourish in any at all and will likely be released.

It’s not been all bad since Nolan took over in 2005, though. Frank Gore has shown he is one of the most complete, dynamic backs in the league. Linebacker Patrick Willis won defensive rookie of the year last year and looks to shore up the inside of the 49ers line backing corps for many years to come. The reemergence of the suit and tie as head coaching attire can be attributed to Nolan’s request to the league for it to be allowed, which was a tribute to his father.

The biggest weakness for the 49ers, the offense, looks to improve immediately with the arrival of Mike Martz and the complex yet effective playbook that comes with him. Martz’s main calling card has been his success in quarterback tutelage. He has helped mentor and improve Trent Green, Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger and most recently Jon Kitna.

Another underperforming 49ers first round draft pick that should blossom thanks to Martz’s arrival is Vernon Davis. Although Martz is known for not utilizing and/or not being too big a fan of the tight end position, it’s being reported that Martz plans using Davis in multiple ways to better utilize his speed and talent. It’s even been said that he’ll line up at receiver on some formations. It’s also safe to assume that Martz would probably be untouchable in a game of Madden.

Heading into the pre-season things are at looking up for the team to say the least. They didn’t have any significant departures unless you consider Darrell Jackson significant (and you shouldn’t, he never did much). Addition Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce should start immediately, with Bruce reuniting with former coach Mike Martz since when they were in St. Louis together. Bruce understands all the intricacies of a Martz offense as well as a little something about the receiver position. Even though his career may be on the decline, the knowledge and veteran leadership he gives is immeasurable -- not too mention how much he can teach whoever ends up throwing him the ball.

Defensive end Justin Smith should add relevance to the defensive line and cornerback Allen Rossum should instantly improve the kick returning game. Former Panthers started Deshaun Foster will spell Gore if and when he gets tired and provide a suitable backup should he get injured (which will likely happen). Many of the weaknesses and questions about last years team have been answered with the free agency signings and the arrival of M&M. However one major question remains: who’s going to quarterback the team?

The stage is all set up for the pre-season: The quarterback battle between the inconsistent Smith who’s failed to live up to his #1 draft pick billing and the career backup Hill who showed everyone last year with 501 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception and a 68.4% completion percentage that he just may be the real deal. Each has the opportunity to succeed should they win the job with an array of weapons and an improving defense now present. Not to mention, a competent play caller whose known for the quarterbacks that have played under him.

Has Alex Smith just been on the wrong system and lacked the capable weapons to succeed? Or is he a career backup who can’t translate the skills he showed in college into the pro game? Although many are high on Shaun Hill, it’s worth noting that he only played in three games last year, all of which came at the end of the year when many teams were looking ahead to the playoffs. Was Hill’s performance in his first taste of the NFL just beginners luck? Or does the guy have legitimate talent?

Regardless of the answers to those questions, Smith likely has a slight lead heading into the pre-season fight to be starting quarterback . Unless Hill impresses Martz greatly before the season starts, the offensive guru will likely want to take the former first overall pick under his wing rather than the untested Hill.

If Smith can study the new complicated system and implement it with some of the skill he’s shown in the past than there’s no telling what the 49ers can do. Like the Lions last year, they could likely come out of no where and steal a couple games early -- surfacing on everyone’s radar only when they’re something like 5-1 and are on a constant loop on NFL Live. Or they could have yet another season of mediocrity with players failing to live up to expectations and their record becoming unrecoverable early on.

With an improved team, an offensive coaching legend and a little luck the 49ers could easily get over the hump this year and become the talent everyone’s been predicting the past couple years. The timing has never been better with the NFC West as unstable as it may be for a long time. Can the 49ers do the unthinkable and claim the NFC West crown? The opinions vary but we’ll all have to wait and see. Twenty five days until pre-season!